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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have one of the more fun divisional round matchups on Sunday evening, as the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) head out West to take on the San Francisco 49ers (13-4). The Cowboys looked good against a Buccaneers team that limped into the playoffs, while the Niners struggled in the first half against Seattle before pulling away and never looking back. We'll see how this slate shakes out, and as I mentioned, it seems like we're in for a fun one.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Cowboys vs. 49ers Divisional NFL DFS showdown slate on January 22nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $16,800 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 259 rushing attempts, 1,258 rushing yards, 110 targets, 87 receptions, 758 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -0.5% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -15.7% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start this slate off with Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is expensive, but he will certainly be worth it. While Dallas ranks fifth in DVOA against the run game, I feel like they have been "soft" there. They ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed to running backs, and while they did only allow six rushing touchdowns across the entire season, they haven't had to run into CMC and this 49ers team. Not only that, but CMC's ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a home run play, and my model projects him for 59.18 yards on the ground while catching 3.64 of 4.22 targets for 30.99 receiving yards and a 55% chance of finding the end zone.
Dak Prescott - QB, $12,300 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,165 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 12.8% (third), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -8% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Dak Prescott. After a season of ups and downs, Dak had himself probably his best game of the season Monday night against the Bucs, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns without throwing one of those daunted interceptions he's struggled with so much this year. He draws a tough matchup against the 49ers' defense in this one though, and it shows in his projections (252.86 yards, 1.42 touchdowns, and 0.87 interceptions). However, if the Cowboys are going to win this game, it will be because of Dak Prescott.
Other Captains/MVPs: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, Tony Pollard
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DFS Flex Plays
George Kittle - TE, $9,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 88 targets, 62 receptions, 802 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Leighton Vander Esch): 8% target rate, 83% catch rate, and 0.12 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Of course, I have to take a look at George Kittle. Kittle has a strong matchup advantage against Leighton Vander Esch, and the Niners as a team have a projected 5.46% DVOA when targeting their tight ends. Kittle had a relatively quiet game against the Seahawks last week, catching both of his targets for 37 yards. Not in this one though, as my model projects Kittle catching 3.98 of his 5.78 targets for 47.79 yards and a 36% chance of finding the end zone.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, $7,800 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 119 targets, 81 receptions, 1,088 yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Trevon Diggs): 13% target rate, 68% catch rate, and 0.25 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at a second San Francisco pass catcher here in Brandon Aiyuk. While I'm sure Deebo Samuel will get a lot of love due to his ability to run the ball, and rightfully so, I think Aiyuk is my favorite 49ers pass catcher in this one. He has a whopping 54.26% projected DVOA when being targeted in this matchup, and my model projects him to catch 4.69 of 7.91 targets for 74.02 yards and a 50% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Other Flex Options: Tony Pollard, Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy
DFS Value Plays
Dalton Schultz - TE, $5,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 97 targets, 64 receptions, 672 yards, and seven touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Dre Greenlaw): 19% target rate, 78% catch rate, and 0.29 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll hit up a Dallas pass catcher next with Dalton Schultz. Schultz is a favorite of mine and a model favorite as well. I mentioned earlier in the season how Schultz has been a relative disappointment to what most thought he would be this season, but he has a chance to step up in a big way in this one. He has a solid matchup against Dre Greenlaw, though the Cowboys have just a -1.14% projected DVOA when targeting the tight ends. My model projects Schultz to grab 4.6 of his 6.73 targets for 45.91 yards and a 35% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Robbie Gould - K, $3,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 36 field goals attempted, 31 field goals made, 54 extra points attempted, and 53 extra points made.
I'll finish things up with a kicker who can actually make his extra points, Robbie Gould. I have a weird feeling that this game might end up being a defensive stalemate, and I'll make sure I have some exposure to the defenses and kickers. While Brett Maher has been in a funk, Gould has missed just one of his last 28 kicks (both field goals and extra points). If Brock Purdy starts off slow and stalls a few 49ers drives, there's a real chance that Gould ends up being in the optimal lineup in this one.
Other Value Plays: 49ers D/ST, Noah Brown, Kyle Juszczyk
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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