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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Commanders vs. Lions Saturday Showdown slate Divisional Round (Jan. 18, 2025). Andy's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! The Divisional Round is officially underway. In this piece, we will take a look at the Saturday night showdown between the NFC's top-seeded Detroit Lions and the "Cardiac" Washington Commanders led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
In this piece, I will break down my top choices for Captain/MVP, flex options, and even some high-risk players worth a flier on your roster.
For questions, follow me on X @A_Smith_FS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jayden Daniels - QB, $16,500 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Jayden Daniels looked sharp in his playoff debut as he went 24-of-35 with 268 passing yards and two scores. He added 36 rushing yards on 13 rushing attempts.
This is right in line with his production over the final month of the season (Weeks 12 through 17), where he averaged a stellar 34.0 PPR points per game. During that stretch, Daniels averaged just over 300 all-purpose yards per game and found the back of the end zone 17 times.
On Saturday night, he will face a struggling Detroit defense that has allowed the ninth-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks this season. It allowed at least 34 points in two of its previous four games and even 17 points to a struggling Chicago Bears offense.
Given the hefty 55.5-point total this game carries, expect both offenses to move downfield easily. Given Daniels' elite rushing upside, he holds the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown- WR, $15,300 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
If you are looking to target a Lion as your captain, I suggest Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown averaged an impressive 18.7 PPR points per game this season. He saw 8.3 targets per game and tallied 74.3 yards per contest. He found the back of the end zone 12 times.
Over the final four games of the season, St. Brown saw his usage increase further. He was targeted 10.8 times per game and averaged 100.8 receiving yards per game during this stretch.
Last weekend in Tampa Bay, top defensive back Marshon Lattimore struggled in his return as Mike Evans tallied 92 yards and a score on seven receptions. While Lattimore will likely return to his elite form, given the amount of time he missed throughout the season with a hamstring injury, he may struggle once again facing another star wide receiver.
Given St. Brown's role in the Detroit offense and the projected point total, he has a viable path to being the top-scoring non-QB in the game.
Terry McLaurin- WR, $14,100 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
If you are looking to save your salary at the captain/MVP position, I suggest you target Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is the clear No. 1 option in the Washington offense, as he has seen an impressive 23.2% of the team's total targets and 40.2% of the team's total air yards this season.
Last weekend in Tampa Bay, McLaurin caught seven of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a score. The former Ohio State Buckeye has seen at least eight targets in eight games this season and only four or fewer in three.
Terry McLaurin with the UNREAL 35-yard catch 🤯
📺: #WASvsTB on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus + Peacockpic.twitter.com/XZJtIPGie5— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) January 13, 2025
Facing a Detroit secondary that has allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing wide receivers sets McLaurin up for another massive game.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, $10,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
The talent is never in question, but with David Montgomery (knee) expected to return, Jahmyr Gibbs becomes a high-risk play as your captain/MVP. Instead, I would lock him as a flex option, as he still carries an elite ceiling.
Over the final three weeks of the regular season with Montgomery sidelined, Gibbs averaged an incredible 32.6 PPR points per game, over 160 all-purpose yards per game, and scored six total touchdowns.
JAHMYR GIBBS TOUCHDOWN FOR THE LIONS pic.twitter.com/LvhtJuI9Ox
— Barstool Bama (@BarstoolAlabama) January 29, 2024
However, during the first 14 games, Gibbs averaged 19.1 PPR points per game. While this is still a remarkable output, with Montgomery back in the lineup, Gibbs' overall ceiling is lowered.
Despite this, facing a Washington defense that has allowed the 15th-most PPR points to opposing running backs makes him a strong flex play with upside.
Jared Goff- QB, $9,800 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Orchestrating a potent Detroit offense makes Goff a strong flex choice. After throwing five interceptions during Week 10, Goff has gone on to post a stellar 21:3 TD:INT ratio while averaging 318.6 passing yards per game over the final eight weeks. Over the final five weeks, Goff has thrown at least three passing scores in all but one contest.
The 30-year-old carries a safe floor but may not have the highest output, as the Commanders have been able to limit opposing quarterbacks' overall production. This defense has held opposing QBs to the third-fewest PPR points per game. However, given the elite weapons around him and the projected point total, Goff is an excellent play if you decide to fade Jayden Daniels.
Jameson Williams- WR, $9,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Jameson Williams has been the deep threat in the Detroit offense all season. He has averaged an incredible 17.3 yards per catch and tallied at least a reception of 40+ yards in six games this season.
Williams has tallied at least 75 receiving yards in eight games this season and averaged an impressive 19.8 PPR points during this stretch.
Jamo high-stepping in for a Prime Time touchdown 🙌#DETvsSF | 📺 ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/kT2fov78mX
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 31, 2024
While he has not been as consistent as the Lions would hope, given his big-play ability, it is hard not to find a spot for him in your lineup.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $6,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Austin Ekeler has a path to seeing the most snaps in the Washington backfield. Last weekend, during the victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ekeler logged a 47% snap share with 11 total touches. However, the top option, Brian Robinson Jr., struggled again as he tallied just 16 yards on 10 attempts. Over his past four games, Robinson has averaged just 27.5 yards per game with a mere 2.9 yards per rush.
Given Robinson's struggles, Ekeler has a path to seeing a more significant workload. In addition, in what will likely be a high-scoring affair against the high-powered Detroit Lions, Ekeler carries a high receiving upside as well.
This past weekend, he saw four targets. Fantasy managers should expect that number to increase significantly, as Ekeler will likely have a more significant role in this contest, given the hefty projected point total.
Sam LaPorta- TE, $5,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Don't look now, but Sam LaPorta has begun to catch fire. After a disappointing opening 12 games to the season where he averaged a mere 9.2 PPR points per game, LaPorta has flipped the script and tallied 16.0 PPR points per game over the final four contests. During this span, he has seen eight targets per game and caught at least six of them in each game.
Given his increased usage and projected offensive explosion, LaPorta is shaping up to be a steal at his price, especially on DraftKings.
Other Flex Options: David Montgomery, Olamide Zaccheaus
Budget Options - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dyami Brown- WR, $4,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Dyami Brown enjoyed a career game during the victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In this game, Brown caught all five of his passes for 89 yards and a score. While Olamide Zaccheaus began to see an increased role while both Dyami Brown and Noah Brown (kidney) were sidelined, it looks like Dyami Brown has reclaimed his spot as the No. 2 option in the offense.
While Zaccheaus will still have a role in the slot, Brown should continue to see starting opportunities in a game in which the Commanders will likely be trailing. Brown is a sneaky value play, as he will have a viable path to a similar workload.
Other Flex Options: Tim Patrick
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