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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Commanders vs Bers showdown slate on 10/13. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 6 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We had a pretty ugly Thursday night matchup last week, and tonight doesn't appear to be much different. The Washington Commanders will head into the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears. It'll certainly be an interesting matchup, so let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Commanders vs. Bears NFL DFS showdown slate on October 13th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Carson Wentz - QB, $15,900 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,390 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -8.8% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 8.1% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Carson Wentz. Wentz's career arc is one of the most interesting arcs we've seen in the NFL in a long time. From a fantasy perspective, though, he reminds me a lot of 2014-2015 Blake Bortles. It's not that Wentz is particularly "good" but has the ability to absolutely feast in garbage time. I don't anticipate there being any garbage time tonight, but I'm confident Wentz will be able to do enough to be optimal in single-entry and cash lineups.
Curtis Samuel - WR, $12,300 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 45 targets, 32 receptions, 281 receiving yards, 51 rushing yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Kyler Gordon): 23% targets per route, 81% catch rate, 0.51 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'm honestly a bit surprised that Samuel isn't the most expensive Washington receiver yet. While Terry McLaurin is great in his own right, Samuel owns more targets, receptions, and touchdowns on the year, as well as getting work out of the backfield. Washington will be down pass-catchers Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas, so I give a solid bump to the guys available tonight. Samuel looks to be in a "money spot" against Bears corner Kyler Gordon, and I expect him to take advantage.
Other Captains/MVPs: Terry McLaurin, Justin Fields
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Fields - QB, $10,000 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 679 passing yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, 194 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -17.1% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 20.6% (29th), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Justin Fields. Fields has been nothing if not "up-and-down" throughout his short career, and tonight proves to be an interesting case. Chicago definitely leans towards a rushing funnel in terms of projected DVOA, but I just can't ignore Fields's rushing upside every time he's on a showdown slate.
David Montgomery - RB, $10,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 47 attempts, 179 rushing yards, 10 targets, nine receptions, 100 receiving yards, one touchdown
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -9.4% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -17.8% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
Speaking of rushing funnels, I'll take a look at David Montgomery. It's very clear that the Bears' offense runs (no pun intended) through Montgomery. The Washington defense proves to be a tough matchup for Montgomery tonight, but I expect him to break at least a few nice runs off and should find the end zone at least once.
Other Flex Options: Darnell Mooney, Terry McLaurin, Cole Kmet, Dyami Brown
DFS Value Plays
Washington Commanders - D/ST, $4,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25.2 points per game allowed, 14 sacks, one interception.
While I don't think this game will be quite as defensive-minded and low-scoring as last week was, I don't see it being very far off. I'm on both defenses here, but I give a slight lean towards Washington's especially on DraftKings due to their cheaper price. Both of these quarterbacks are relatively turnover-prone, and while again I'm not expecting a 12-9 finish, I could see both defenses ending up in the optimal lineup tonight.
John Bates - TE, $3,000 (DK), $5,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 14 targets, nine receptions, 73 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Roquan Smith): 11% targets per route, 50% catch rate, 0.11 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I mentioned earlier that Washington will be without pass-catchers Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas tonight. This will bump John Bates to the TE1 spot in Washington's offense. I watched Wentz play for years in Philadelphia, and while it hasn't really shown yet this season, he loves throwing to his tight ends. Even though Bates doesn't have the strongest matchup and will have to deal with Roquan Smith in the middle of the field, I think he's just too cheap to pass up.
Other Value Plays: Bears D/ST, Equanimeous St. Brown, Armani Rogers
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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