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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Colts vs Cowboys showdown slate on 12/04. His Sunday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After another high-scoring affair last Sunday night with the Eagles taking down the Packers in Philly, we have a not-so-fun Sunday night matchup this week. The Jeff Saturday-led Colts (4-7-1) will head into "Jerry World" to take on the Cowboys (8-3). I can't imagine this game being anything other than a blowout, and we'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Colts vs. Cowboys NFL DFS showdown slate on December 4th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Dak Prescott - QB, $15,300 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,393 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 13.2% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.3% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Dak Prescott. For as well as Dallas has played through their first 11 games on the season, Dak hasn't put up the fantasy numbers expected of him (likely due to him missing a few weeks due to injury). He's certainly picked it up over recent weeks, though, and I'm fully expecting a rout here. The rout will likely come from a dominant passing performance from Prescott with accessory help from his running backs, like...
Tony Pollard - RB, $12,300 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 136 rushing attempts, 761 rushing yards, 33 targets, 23 receptions, 244 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 7.1% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -13.1% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
Tony Pollard has come seemingly taken over the "RB1" role in Dallas. It's well deserved, too. Pollard has been excellent this season, showing his skills in both the running and passing games. With that said, though, if there's one thing that Indy is good at, it's clogging up the middle of the trenches. I'll look for Pollard to break a few runs off tackle and get some work in the short passing/screen game, racking up receptions and YAC en route to another solid fantasy performance.
Other Captains/MVPs: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $6,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 17 points per game allowed, 45 sacks, seven interceptions, nine fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
- Projected Weighted DVOA: -42.68%
Dallas's defense will likely have more exposure than any player in my lineups tonight. I mean, why not? This Colts offense is among the worst in football and moves the ball primarily through their running game and Jonathan Taylor. While Dallas can be run on, I anticipate them building a lead against the Colts' defense and forcing Matt Ryan to throw the ball. That spells bad news for Indy, as Dallas sits atop all NFL teams in pass DVOA, as well as leading the NFL in sacks.
Dalton Schultz - TE, $8,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 46 targets, 33 receptions, 310 yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Bobby Okereke): 20% target rate, 75% catch rate, 0.30 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at my favorite Dallas pass-catcher tonight, tight end Dalton Schultz. Schultz hasn't had the kind of year that fantasy managers (including myself) have expected, but he's been good nonetheless. He draws a strong matchup against Bobby Okereke and the Colts' defense tonight as Dallas has a projected 27.14% passing DVOA when passing to tight ends, the highest among all Dallas receiving options tonight.
Other Flex Options: Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr.
DFS Value Plays
Parris Campbell - WR, $5,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 63 targets, 46 receptions, 454 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs DaRon Bland): 21% target rate, 87% catch rate, 0.41 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll be looking at some Colts pass-catchers for value. I'll start with Parris Campbell, who's coming off a slow week against Pittsburgh, catching just two of three targets for 14 yards. He'll look to bounce back this week as the Colts will look to get the ball out of Matt Ryan's hands quickly. While the Colts have a projected -20.96% DVOA when targeting Campbell, his matchup against DaRon Bland is the best among all Colts receivers tonight.
Jelani Woods - TE, $4,200 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 177 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
Last but not least, I'll take a look at Jelani Woods. Woods is seemingly everyone's new fantasy darling after catching eight of nine targets for 98 yards against Pittsburgh last week. The Colts have a projected -35.76% DVOA when targeting tight ends in this matchup, which isn't great, but if Woods is capable of even half of his production from Monday night, he'll end up being an optimal play. His status for this game is up in the air, but after practicing on Friday, he should be good to go.
Other Value Plays: Brett Maher, Noah Brown, Peyton Hendershot
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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