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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm still on cloud nine with football being back, and we're back at it again with some Week 4 Sunday Night Football DFS lineups. We have what should be an awesome matchup tonight, as the Chiefs head down to Tampa for a Super Bowl 55 rematch against the Bucs. The Bucs are slowly but surely getting healthier, so it should be a more even matchup than if the two teams squared off a week or two ago.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Broncos NFL DFS showdown slate on October 2nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 857 passing yards, eight touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 41.2% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -43.1% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes is likely dead-set on getting his revenge following his loss against the Bucs in Super Bowl 55. Sure, he doesn't have playmaking WR Tyreek Hill anymore, but it doesn't seem to have slowed him down much. The Bucs' pass defense is elite, as Football Outsiders currently has them as the best in the league, but you can still make the argument that Mahomes is the best pure passer in the league. It's strength against strength here, and I'm anticipating a shootout.
Mike Evans - WR, $14,100 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 11 targets, eight receptions, 132 yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs L'Jarius Sneed): 16% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.36 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
We'll take a look at Mike Evans as one of our "cheaper" 1.5x guys tonight. Evans is back following a one-week suspension for defending Tom Brady in Week 2 against the Saints. Tom will be happy to have him back, as the Bucs' passing offense was unable to get anything going last Sunday against the Packers. He'll likely see the most targets of any Bucs pass catchers in this one, and with uncertainty surrounding the statuses of Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, I like this play that much more.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster
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DFS Flex Plays
Tom Brady - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 673 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 4% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 0.6% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
We'll take a look at the G.O.A.T. as our top flex play of the night. While I'll be opting for Mahomes primarily on FanDuel, my projections actually have Brady projected higher on DraftKings. That's something to keep in mind when building lineups. At the very least, Brady will have Mike Evans returning to the lineup tonight. Should Godwin and Jones return as well, I may bump him up over Mahomes, as I think the Chiefs are the better team here which would lead to the Bucs throwing it a bunch to keep up.
Travis Kelce - TE, $9,400 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 24 targets, 17 receptions, 230 yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Devin White): 12% targets per route, 58% catch rate, 0.15 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
While Kelce's numbers haven't seemed to change one bit since the departure of Tyreek Hill, I'll honestly say I was expecting a bit more from him this season. He's still the best tight end in football, and I expect him to have a big game tonight. While Devin White is a fantastic all-around player, and I don't expect him to be the one in coverage against Kelce all night, I just believe Kelce will be too much to handle and I may even sprinkle a small bet on him finding the end zone twice.
Other Flex Options: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage (if Godwin OUT), Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR, $5,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Four targets, two receptions, 34 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Antonio Winfield Jr.): 22% targets per route, 57% catch rate, 0.36 fantasy points per route
I tread with caution here as Valdes-Scantling does have a Q tag as I'm writing this. He is expected to play, though, and I'm a bit confused why his price is so cheap in this spot. He's seen at least four targets in each game this season, including seven targets in both of the Chiefs' last two games. He hasn't made that explosive "down-the-field" play yet, but it could very well happen tonight as the Bucs try to keep Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster under wraps.
Cole Beasley - WR, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Four targets, three receptions, 12 yards.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
Here's another play where I'll be treading with caution, as the statuses of Chris Godwin and Julio Jones will really determine how much I like this play. The veteran only played eight passing snaps last week but saw four targets for three receptions (albeit for just 12 yards) on those eight snaps. He now has another week to have learned the Bucs' playbook and could be a reliable safety blanket for Tom Brady, and we're getting him at a relatively cheap price. I rate this as a DraftKings-specific play.
Other Value Plays: Cameron Brate, Ryan Succop
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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