RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 8 action as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) head north to take on the Buffalo Bills (4-3). Both of these teams are trying to right the ship after the Bucs fell to Atlanta, and the Bills dropped one to the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Bills are missing quite a few players on their defense, we'll see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Bills NFL DFS showdown slate on October 26. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,841 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 29 rushing attempts, 148 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 48.26%
I'll start things off with Josh Allen. Allen is due for a bounce-back game, and I'm sure he can't be happy with his team's performance against the Patriots in Week 7. Allen projects to 285.8 yards and 1.85 touchdowns through the air, adding 22.57 yards and 0.38 touchdowns on the ground. Allen may get pressured tonight, which makes him a strong candidate to run the ball tonight. I think Allen has a huge game and is worth the hefty price tag on this slate.
Stefon Diggs - WR, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 78 targets, 55 receptions, 678 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 8.21%
I'll be looking at the two most expensive players on the slate tonight, next taking a look at Stefon Diggs. Diggs projects to 8.15 receptions on 11.03 targets for 105.86 yards and 0.74 touchdowns. He has a pretty strong matchup here, as the Bucs allow a ton of targets (9.56) and yards (89.33). He and Allen will have to click early and often, and I believe Buffalo's path to victory goes through the two of them.
Other Captains/MVPs: Chris Godwin, Bills D/ST, James Cook
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DFS Flex Plays
Baker Mayfield - QB, $9,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,363 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, 28 rushing attempts, 99 rushing yards.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 3.59%
I'll take a look on the other side of the field for my flex plays, starting with Baker Mayfield. Mayfield projects for 227.19 passing yards tonight. He doesn't look to have the touchdown numbers (0.94), and projects to throw 1.09 interceptions, but I feel like I have to play him tonight. As I mentioned earlier, the Bills are missing a handful of defensive starters, and if the Bills get out in front it'll be up to Baker to keep Tampa Bay in it. Not to mention Mayfield is somewhat fighting for his job here, so he'll need to have himself a big night.
Chris Godwin - WR, $7,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 49 targets, 33 receptions, 398 receiving yards.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR2: 3.86%
I think Mayfield's top target tonight is Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans. They're pretty close in terms of targets, with Evans projecting to 8.47 and Godwin projecting to 8.01. Godwin projects to catch 5.88 of those 8.01 targets for 62.15 yards and 0.31 touchdowns. The Bills relatively struggle in the slot, where I think Godwin will predominately line up, so I think we could see a lot of receptions for Godwin and perhaps a slant in the red zone that leads to a score.
Other Flex Options: James Cook, Mike Evans
DFS Value Plays
Buffalo Bills - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16.86 points per game allowed, 25 sacks, eight interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
I'll "hedge my bet" here with the Bills defense. Despite having multiple guys out, I think the Bills defense shows up to play tonight. The Buccaneers are due for regression in terms of DVOA, and bring in a projected 3.59% passing DVOA and -30.07% rushing DVOA. I don't see them getting much going on the ground, and unless the Buccaneers offensive line and Baker Mayfield have a great night, I think they should generate pressure and force the former number-one overall pick to turn the ball over multiple times.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $5,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 27 targets, 25 attempts, 193 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid projects to 3.77 receptions on 5.89 targets tonight for 32.12 receiving yards and 0.24 touchdowns. The Buccaneers are solid against tight ends, bringing in a DVOA of -19.79% against tight ends in the passing game. However, they rank 29th in targets (8.2) and 20th in receptions (5.2) against the position this season. With Dawson Knox ruled out, it'll be up to Kincaid to take the lead in the tight end room tonight. Let's see if he's up for it.
Other Value Plays: Tyler Bass, Cade Otton, Deonte Harty
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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