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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Broncos vs Seahawks showdown slate on 9/12. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
It's officially Week 1, RotoBallers! I can't believe football is back and I'm extremely excited for this upcoming season. Not only does my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, looking primed to make a serious run to the playoffs, but I'm also super excited for the weekly betting and DFS on the greatest sport in the world to be back. We have an interesting matchup tonight, as Russell Wilson and his new team, the Denver Broncos, head out to Seattle to take on Wilson's former team, the Seattle Seahawks.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Broncos vs. Seahawks NFL DFS showdown slate on September 12th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Russell Wilson - QB, $17,700 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 3,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions.
- 2021 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.4% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 17.6% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
Who else to start with but Russell Wilson, right? Wilson takes on his former team, a team whom he played a decade of football with, going to two Super Bowls, and winning one. He'll look to take the next step of his career in Denver, where he finds no shortage of receiving options -- featuring the likes of Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. We can reasonably expect an air raid from Seattle tonight, with a blowout the only thing keeping Russ from reaching his full ceiling potential.
Tyler Lockett - WR, $10,500 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 107 targets, 73 receptions, 1175 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 24.29% target rate, 13.04% red zone target rate, eight end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs K'Waun Williams): 13% targets per route, 80% catch rate, 0.20 fantasy points per route covered.
On the other hand, we'll take a look at one of Wilson's former receivers, Tyler Lockett, as our secondary 1.5x player tonight. When Wilson was in Seattle we often had to play "pick one" between Lockett and Metcalf, and honestly, I don't think it'll be any different whether it's Geno Smith or Drew Lock under center. I'll back Lockett on this slate due to him being cheaper, and having more of a solid floor to work with. With that said, though, I will certainly have Metcalf shares tonight as well.
Other Captains/MVPs: Cortland Sutton, D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Albert Okwuegbunam
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DFS Flex Plays
Rashaad Penny - RB, $10,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 119 attempts, 749 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, eight targets, six receptions, 48 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 39.47% snap rate, 40.17% attempt rate, 35.14% red zone attempt rate, 23.03% attempt rate < 5yd line, 3.4% target rate, 3.57% red zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.3% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -5.1% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
It may be a bit of a curious pick here, selecting a running back from a team that's fairly likely to get blown out, but hear me out. Penny has arguably the best matchup on the slate in terms of DVOA, with the Seahawks having a projected rushing DVOA of 8.29%, one of the best matchups for running backs all weekend. I could certainly see Seattle keeping the ball on the ground and controlling the clock in an effort to keep themselves in the ballgame.
Jerry Jeudy - WR, $8,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 93 targets, 78 receptions, 510 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 14% target rate, 14.85% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Individual Matchup (vs Sidney Jones): 13% targets per route, 62% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered.
As I had mentioned with Tyler Lockett, we have to somewhat take a guess of which Denver wide receiver is going to have themselves a big night. I don't think you can go wrong with either tonight in particular, I'll just lean Jeudy here due to him being cheaper in price as well as the fact his matchup against Sidney Jones grades out slightly better than Sutton's.
Other Flex Options: Courtland Sutton, Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Noah Fant
DFS Value Plays
Albert Okweugbunam - TE, $5,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 40 targets, 33 receptions, 330 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 10.58% target rate, 13.51% red zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup (vs Cody Barton): 19% targets per route, 68% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route.
One of "my guys" in redrafts this offseason, I feel like Okwuegbunam hasn't gotten the projections and "love" that he deserves coming into this year. On an individual level, you can make the argument that Albert O was the biggest winner in the Russell Wilson trade, with Noah Fant being shipped to Seattle as a part of the deal. He's a YAC monster with a big play ability, and his ability to catch darn near everything thrown to him (80% catch rate, third among TEs in 2021 with min. 50 targets) provides a quality safety net should Wilson need him.
Denver Broncos - D/ST, $4,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 36 sacks, six fumble recoveries, 13 interceptions, one defensive touchdown.
- Projected Weighted DVOA: -6.94%.
A rather safe and most likely "chalky" value play here. While the Seahawks have flashy, high-upside, talented players on offense (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Rashaad Penny), ultimately Geno Smith is their quarterback. The Seahawks scored 19.5 points per game across Smith's four starts in 2021, with 31 of them coming against the Jaguars. Denver's defense isn't "blow-your-mind" impressive but should be able to get to Smith, coming up with sacks and possibly a few turnovers.
Other Value Plays: Jacob Myers, Brandon McManus, Kenneth Walker III (if playing), Travis Homer (if Walker is ruled OUT)
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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