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It's that time of the year again, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 6 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have a divisional matchup here, although not a super-fun one. Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos (1-4) head into Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (4-1). After looking at the weather report for the game, it appears that there will be some 15-20mph winds around game time, with gusts up to 30mph. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on October 12. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $14,100 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 71 carries, 325 rushing yards, 13 targets, 11 receptions, 99 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 18.21%
I'll start things off with Isiah Pacheco. If there was going to be any "Pacheco game," this is it. My model projects Pacheco to run the ball 14.7 times for 114.72 yards and catch 2.24 of 2.34 targets for 18.17 yards. He also projects for 1.37 touchdowns here. I mentioned earlier that the wind gusts could reach up to 30mph, which may alter the passing game. Along with the game script, this game sets up nicely for Pacheco to have himself a huge night.
Travis Kelce - TE, $13,800 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 37 targets, 27 receptions, 222 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs TE: 33.73%
I'll take a look at Travis Kelce next. I do think the wind gusts will affect the passing game, but I think that's more in terms of deep shots instead of quick or intermediate routes like Kelce typically catches. My model projects Kelce to catch 7.37 of his 8.66 targets for 92.41 yards and 0.82 touchdowns. I think there's a very strong chance that Kelce outscores Mahomes in this one. After a (relatively) slow start to the season, I think this could end up being a big night for Taylor Swift's boyfriend.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $12,800 (DK), $18,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,287 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions, 23 carries, 154 rushing yards.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 76.61%
Holy smokes, when was the last time I wrote a prime-time article with Patrick Mahomes not listed as a captain/MVP? I don't think that's ever happened. Well, my model projects him to absolutely dominate tonight: 334.58 passing yards, 3.49 touchdowns, 0.31 interceptions, 21.65 rushing yards, 0.12 rushing touchdowns. Do I think Mahomes could put up those numbers? Yes. Do I think he will? Given the aforementioned wind gusts, probably not. I have no doubt he'll be efficient, I just don't see the passing volume to justify his 1.5x price. However, he'll still be in a TON of my lineups.
Javonte Williams - WR, $7,200 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 38 attempts, 138 rushing yards, 15 targets, 11 receptions, 51 receiving yards.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: -6.72%
I'll look at my first of two Broncos tonight, mostly because I can't play all Chiefs in my lineup. I'll start with Javonte Williams. If the Broncos were smart, they would run the ball and chip away at the Kansas City defense, keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. They could make something happen there, but I don't anticipate it being more than 4-5 yards at a time. My model projects Williams to run the ball 11.47 times for 40.02 yards, as well as catching 2.12 of his 3.06 targets for 13.6 yards. With only a 29% chance of finding the end zone, I really don't love Williams at this price, but the fact there aren't a ton of Broncos I'd willingly play on this slate, I guess he is one of our only options.
Other Flex Options: Rashee Rice, Jaleel McLaughlin, Courtland Sutton
DFS Value Plays
Kansas City Chiefs - D/ST, $5,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14.4 points per game allowed, 13 sacks, one interception, five fumble recoveries.
You could take everything I just wrote about Javonte Williams and apply it here. Frankly, I think the Chiefs' defense could outscore the majority, if not all, of the Broncos offense tonight. Sure, the Broncos aren't terrible in terms of DVOA (16th-ranked passing offense, 12th-ranked rushing offense, per FTN). However, this game script doesn't really suit them as the Chiefs will likely do everything to prevent the big play from happening and force Russell Wilson to throw the ball down the field. Given Russ's inability to really do so in the past calendar year along with the impending weather, it's a bad combination, which gives the Chiefs defense a significant advantage here.
Samaje Perine - RB, $3,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 24 attempts, 88 rushing yards, 18 targets, 15 receptions, 168 receiving yards.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: -6.72%
I'll wrap things up with Samaje Perine. I didn't mention it earlier but I'll mention now how Javonte Williams did indeed miss Sunday's game against the Jets with a quad injury. If you do end up playing Denver's running backs, I would have a nice mix of all three, with Perine providing the most value. Perine projects to run the ball 5.8 times for 20.43 yards and catch 1.86 of 2.52 targets for 11.99 yards with a 17% chance of finding the end zone. It's not much, but if this one gets out of hand early I won't be surprised to see Perine take the lead-back role with Sean Payton and the Broncos giving Williams's quad some extra rest.
Other Value Plays: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Noah Gray, Kadarius Toney
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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