RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! We have an AFC showdown tonight as the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) head down to Duval to take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (8-3).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Jaguars NFL DFS showdown slate on December 4. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Travis Etienne - RB, $15,300 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 194 rushing attempts, 726 rushing yards, 48 targets, 36 receptions, 312 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -3.88%
I'll start tonight off with Travis Etienne. There's been some talk about Etienne this week as he was limited in practice on both Thursday and Friday. Despite his questionable tag, I believe he plays. I sure hope he does, as he's projected to rack up 93.16 rushing and receiving yards combined and 0.71 touchdowns. He draws a solid matchup against the Bengals' 29th-ranked rushing defense and has the game script advantage as well.
Evan Engram - TE, $9,300 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 82 targets, 64 receptions, 524 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 22.38%
I'll take a look at Evan Engram next. Engram could have himself a massive game in this one, as my model projects him to catch 5.83 of his 6.48 targets for 56.71 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns. He draws the beauty of a matchup against Cincinnati's 30th-ranked defense against tight ends. They allow the third-most receptions and 32nd-most receiving yards to the position. He's a great value option at the 1.5x spots, particularly on DraftKings.
Other Captains/MVPs: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Joe Mixon - RB, $7,000 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 161 rushing attempts, 621 rushing yards, 40 targets, 33 receptions, 232 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -24.41%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Joe Mixon next. It was an unfortunate happenstance with Joe Burrow out for the year; however, it does open up the door for Mixon to see a lot more volume. Tonight, Mixon projects to just 47.18 yards on 15.7 carries, but that's not what I'm necessarily looking for here. He projects to catch 3.16 of his 3.71 targets for 22.93 yards, and projects to 0.31 touchdowns overall. Mixon should be a nice safety blanket in the passing game for Jake Browning, and I could certainly see him racking up 5+ receptions in this one.
Christian Kirk - WR, $8,200 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 84 targets, 56 receptions, 761 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 9.46%
Next, I'll head back to the Jacksonville side to talk about Christian Kirk. With the likes of the Dolphins and Eagles wide receiver rooms getting talked up as the best in the league, I think Jacksonville has at worst a very solid one of their own. That includes Kirk, who projects to 4.46 receptions on 6.54 targets for 59.63 yards and 0.36 touchdowns. The price difference between Kirk and Ridley is marginal, and I think we expect to see, at worst, production from the two of them. Kirk does have a matchup advantage in terms of both DVOA and defense vs. position metrics as well.
And good news, Zay Jones will be suiting up tonight.
Other Flex Options: Calvin Ridley, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
DFS Value Plays
Jacksonville Jaguars - D/ST, $4,800 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 19.91 points per game allowed, 24 sacks, 11 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns.
I have to take a look at the Jaguars defense here. The Jags defense has quietly been extremely solid in 2023. Would I be playing them in this spot if Joe Burrow was under center for Cincinnati? Most likely not, but the fact of the matter is I don't trust a Jake Browning-led offense to do very much here. Not to mention, this Jaguars unit projects to a 40.91% pressure rate and 6.1% sack rate, and should make the three hours of game time miserable for Browning.
Tyler Boyd - WR, $5,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 44 rushing attempts, 197 rushing yards, 72 targets, 50 receptions, 462 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: 0.65%
I'll wrap things up with Tyler Boyd. Boyd projects to a relatively quiet evening: 4.58 targets, 2.99 receptions, 35.68 receiving yards, and 0.23 touchdowns. I had just mentioned when talking about the Jacksonville defense that Browning projects to be under pressure on 40.91% of dropbacks tonight. Boyd will be another safety blanket for Browning, and while I don't think he'll rack up a ton of yards, he could be fit for a half dozen receptions tonight.
Other Value Plays: D'Ernest Johnson, Evan McPherson, Brandon McManus, Tanner Hudson
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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