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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 5 Bears vs Commanders showdown slate on 10/5. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
It's that time of the year again, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have two young quarterbacks who have shown some promise squaring off in this one, as Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears (0-4) head east to take on Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders (2-2). The Bears are still searching for their first win of the season, while the Commanders are coming off of a gut-wrenching loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Bears will be without Chase Claypool for this one, and possibly the rest of the season, so we'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs. Commanders NFL DFS showdown slate on October 5. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Justin Fields - QB, $16,500 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 861 passing yards, seven touchdowns, five interceptions, 28 carries, 134 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -14.98%
I'll start things off with Justin Fields. Fields really came to play against the Broncos on Sunday, going 28/35 for 335 yards and four touchdowns. He did throw an interception, now throwing one in every game, but it was definitely a massive step in the right direction for Fields. He doesn't have a great matchup against the Commanders in this one, but I really do like his rushing matchup. The Commanders will get pressure, causing Fields to flood the pocket and get yards with his legs. My model projects him for 168.56 passing yards and 0.97 touchdowns while adding 56.83 yards on the ground and 0.36 touchdowns. I think my model has slightly under-projected, but he still shapes out to the highest projections on the slate.
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, $13,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 61 carries, 261 rushing yards, seven targets, five receptions, 55 receiving yards, four total touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 0.41%
A perhaps surprising second-highest projection on the slate is Brian Robinson Jr. I'm going to be all over Robinson's props in this game, as he has a fantastic matchup both on the ground and through the air. My model projects him to run the ball 16.39 times for 75.76 yards (4.62 yards per carry), catching 1.42 of 1.73 targets for 11.93 yards and an 83% chance of catching a touchdown. I know he's not much of a "receiving threat" in the backfield, but if there's any time to get that going, it'll be tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Terry McLaurin, Khalil Herbert, DJ Moore
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DFS Flex Plays
Terry McLaurin - WR, $10,200 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 26 targets, 21 receptions, 212 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR1: 31.13%, per FTN.
As far as flex plays go, I'll take a look at Terry McLaurin. Perhaps it's because I'm an Eagles fan and I was sweating that entire game out, but I thought that McLaurin had an even better game than his (still impressive) eight-reception, 86-yard performance showed. Tonight he projects to 5.56 receptions on 6.63 targets for 75.43 yards and 0.42 touchdowns. He draws a fantastic matchup as Chicago struggles against both WR1s and against wide receivers that line up on the left side, where McLaurin lines up 49.1% of the time.
DJ Moore - WR, $10,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 24 targets, 19 receptions, 301 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR1: 15.33%, per FTN.
After looking at one WR1, I'll look at his counterpart on the opposing team this evening in DJ Moore. Moore was a big beneficiary of Fields' lights-out performance, catching eight of nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown. Tonight, Moore projects 4.39 receptions on 6.75 targets for 60.63 yards and 0.39 touchdowns. We saw what A.J. Brown did to first-round cornerback Emmanuel Forbes on Sunday, and if Fields can get him the ball, it may be more of the same here.
Other Flex Options: Khalil Herbert, Sam Howell
DFS Value Plays
Roschon Johnson, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 22 attempts, 103 rushing yards, 12 targets, 11 receptions, 58 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: -20.53%, per FTN.
I'll look at a pair of running backs in the value slots, starting with Roschon Johnson. The Commanders have a very solid defensive rush DVOA (-18.92%, 9th), but struggle against running backs in the passing game. I think that benefits Johnson more than Khalil Herbert (although I will have Herbert shares as well). Johnson projects to 20.27 yards on 5.7 carries as well as 8.68 receiving yards on 1.29 receptions. I think he certainly gets more targets and receptions than my model is projecting, making him a solid value option.
Antonio Gibson - RB, $3,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 13 attempts, 54 rushing yards, 10 targets, eight receptions, 68 receiving yards.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 0.41%
I'll wrap things up with Antonio Gibson. I think Gibson is in a very similar spot to Johnson here. While I won't play Johnson and Herbert in the same lineup, I may not hold myself to the same standard with Robinson and Gibson. Gibson projects to have 2.44 receptions on 2.90 targets for 22.46 receiving yards, as well as 22.92 yards on the ground (5.12 attempts). He has a 40% chance to find the end zone. If this game gets out of hand, I think Gibson can end up having a monster game at an extremely cheap price on both sites.
Other Value Plays: Cairo Santos, Dyami Brown, Commanders D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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