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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - 49ers vs Broncos showdown slate on 9/25. His Sunday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I'm still on cloud nine with football being back, and we're back at it again with some Week 3 Sunday Night Football DFS lineups. We have an interesting matchup tonight, as the 49ers head up to Denver to take on the Broncos. The 49ers will now be with Jimmy Garoppolo under center due to Trey Lance's unfortunate injury. I wish all the best to Lance and hope he recovers fast, but let's take a look at how it affects this slate.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Broncos NFL DFS showdown slate on September 25th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Russell Wilson - QB, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 599 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.7% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -17.2% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Russell Wilson. Many folks will look to roster one (or both) Broncos running backs tonight. I will do so as well, but I'm more interested in the Broncos' passing game in this one. The Broncos have a projected passing DVOA of 1.63%, which isn't great, but their -26.11% projected rushing DVOA ranks among the worst of all games this weekend. I'll look to pair Russ with a few of his pass catchers, but we'll get to that later.
George Kittle - TE, $11,100 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: No Stats
- Individual Matchup (vs Alex Singleton): 13% targets per route, 75% catch rate, 0.17 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
It appears as of now that George Kittle will be making his 2022 debut Sunday night. That's great news for San Fran, and Jimmy G starting at QB seems to be good news for Kittle. The two have an undeniable connection and Kittle draws a solid matchup against Denver LB Alex Singleton. I have the Niners at a relatively split DVOA advantage between the passing and run game, but Kittle is my favorite Niners pass catcher on this slate.
Other Captains/MVPs: Javonte Williams, Deebo Samuel
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DFS Flex Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, $9,000 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 154 passing yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 19% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -21.3% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing him the ball will be Jimmy G. It seemed that a lot of folks were split on whether the 49ers should be starting Lance or Jimmy this season. It's unfortunate that it took these circumstances to get Jimmy under center, but I think this is a good thing for the 49ers in the interim. Jimmy G isn't a fantasy stud but should do enough to get the job done. I'll be splitting my lineups roughly 50/50 between the Niners' passing game and running backs. Such as...
Jeff Wilson Jr. - RB, $8,000 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Three targets, one reception, 18 receiving yards, one touchdown
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -10.8% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -20.9% (8th), per Football Outsiders
While I will have some overlap and create some lineups with both Garoppolo and Jeff Wilson in it, I think Wilson is in a favorable matchup himself tonight. The Niners have a projected rush DVOA of -8.01%, projected adjusted line yards of 4.72, and a projected "stuffed" rate of just 9%. We know Kyle Shanahan likes to work his RBs, and I'll happily have quite a bit of Wilson shares as well as some Marlon Mack shares.
Other Flex Options: Brandon Aiyuk, Melvin Gordon, Cortland Sutton
DFS Value Plays
Albert Okwuegbunam - TE, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Four targets, two receptions, 34 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Dre Greenlaw): 21% targets per route, 100% catch rate, 0.53 fantasy points per route
I'll continue to write Albert O up on every slate that I can. I played him last week on a full roster slate and he, unfortunately, rewarded me with a big fat goose egg, seeing just two targets. I'm not sure why Russ and the Broncos haven't been targeting tight ends much this year, but if there was a time to do it, it would be in this one against San Francisco. As you can see above, Albert O has a beauty of a matchup against Dre Greenlaw, so maybe Sunday night will be the coming-out game that I've been waiting for.
KJ Hamler - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: One target
- Individual Matchup: N/A
After seeing just one target in Week 1 before getting hurt and missing Week 2, I'll look for him to bounce back in this one. Obviously Hamler slots into the Broncos offense as "WR3" behind Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but that may work to his advantage. The Broncos' "other" wide receivers (any receiver that isn't listed as "WR1" or "WR2", have a projected DVOA of 62.98%, the highest across this entire weekend of games. I'll be willing to take a shot here with Hamler, as well as "WR4" Tyrie Cleveland.
Other Value Plays: 49ers D/ST, Brandon McManus, Marlon Mack, Tyrie Cleveland
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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