Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS GPP Stacks for FanDuel, DraftKings (Conference Championship Round)


Hey there RotoBallers! With the end of the NFL regular season, there aren't any season-long league concerns left for us fantasy gamers. That makes the Conference Championship Round of the playoffs a perfect time to focus on making some DFS lineups. Since there are only four teams in action on the slate, I will be altering the format that this article has followed up until this point. Instead of picking out top stacks, I will touch on the passing game matchup for each of the four teams left with the teams listed in order of my stacking preference.

The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.

This article will center on games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

Conference Championship Round DFS Tournament Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are my (and probably everyone else's) favorite stack of the weekend. Not only do they possess the most explosive passing offense left on the slate but they also are the only team to draw a plus matchup in the passing game. While the defenses of the Packers, 49ers, and these very Chiefs have been effective at shutting down enemy passing attacks this season, the Titans struggled in that area. Tennessee finished with a pass defense that ranked 21st in the league in DVOA. The next worst defense against the pass? The Packers with a pass-defense DVOA of 10th.

We saw last week just how dangerous the Chiefs can be on offense. They, of course, got down 21-0 in the first quarter before roaring back with a 28-point second quarter and finishing with 51 points to send the Texans home. Patrick Mahomes should have little trouble moving the ball against a Tennessee defense that allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

Kansas City's top two pass catchers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both in play as top options on the slate. That being said, both will come with very high ownership rates. With that in mind, consider getting some exposure to Sammy Watkins this weekend. Watkins draws the most favorable matchup of the Chiefs as he will run the majority of his routes against Tennessee slot corner Logan Ryan. Ryan earned the lowest Pro Football Focus grade of the Titans' top-three corners and allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route covered in the regular season. Watkins also finally showed some signs of life last week as he finished with 76 yards on two catches.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

After being a disaster on defense the past few seasons, the Chiefs really shored up their secondary this year. Kansas City finished the season ranked sixth in pass-defense DVOA and allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Their run defense, however, remains a spot that can be attacked. The only problem here is the high-powered KC offense can rack up points in a hurry. That can make it difficult for their opposition to #establishtherun. That doesn't mean the Titans won't try, however. Game script will be important here. If the Titans can jump out to an early lead, expect to see a heavy dose of postseason star Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has attempted just 29 passes in his team's surprising two-game run to the Conference Championship Round. Of course, the Texans thought they built up a safe lead last week just to see the Chiefs go nuclear in the second quarter. I still prefer Tennessee's passing offense to either Green Bay or the 49ers considering the lockdown pass defenses that those two teams possess and the strong possibility that Tennessee will be playing from behind.

Tannehill has been extremely efficient despite averaging just 14.5 pass attempts through his two playoff contests. He has accounted for four touchdowns during that span (three passing, one rushing). I think the Titans will be forced to pass more frequently against a Chiefs offense that is much better equipped to put points on the board than either the Patriots or the Texans.

A.J. Brown has been an afterthought in the Tennessee postseason run, thanks to a run-heavy approach. He still remains the Titans' top threat in the passing game and the team's best bet to move the ball through the air in what should be a high-scoring game. Kansas City's defense has been stingy against the pass this season but Brown draws an extremely favorable matchup against right corner Bashaud Breeland. Breeland runs a plodding 4.62 40-yard dash and gives up two inches and 31 pounds to Brown. Brown's two-game slow stretch could cause fantasy gamers to look past him on Sunday.

Jonnu Smith is also in play if you want to roll out a three-man Tennessee stack. If there is one weakness in a stout KC pass defense, it is their ability to defend the tight end. While they allowed the second-fewest wide receiver points during the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Smith has some touchdown upside for the Titans this weekend.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers were one of the most dominant pass defenses in the league during the regular season. Their pass defense finished the year ranked No. 2 in DVOA behind only the Patriots. The run defense wasn't too shabby, either, ranking 11th. The 49ers showed few if any cracks in the regular season. They were "worst" against wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They experienced a rough stretch near the end of the season but that can be attributed to multiple injuries in their secondary. Their starters are healthy now and limited the Vikings to 10 points on just 147 total yards in the Divisional Round.

With all that being said, you might be asking why the Packers offense is listed above San Francisco's. It is close between the two units but the Packers do have a few positive factors working in their favor. First, Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. While he hasn't been playing up to his normal level this season, he is still a dangerous player and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he scraped together a multi-touchdown game on Sunday. Second, the Packers are 7.5-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, look for them to fall behind and have to pass frequently in the second half to catch up.

Davante Adams is coming off a dominant two-touchdown outing against Seattle and he draws a better matchup than you might think. The 49ers rarely shadowed during the season, with Richard Sherman lining up on the left side of the formation on 98% of the snaps. Adams ran just 33% of his routes against the opposition's left corner, meaning he should avoid the lockdown defender on roughly 1/3 of his routes. When Adams lines up on the left side, he will see coverage from weak-link corner Ahkello Witherspoon, who graded out at a 63.5 over at PFF and allowed 0.34 fantasy points per route covered. Both of those marks are the worst of the three projected starting corners for San Francisco.

I'm not crazy about rolling out a three-man stack against the 49ers but if you feel the urge, Aaron Jones would probably be the best choice. Allen Lazard will see primary coverage from Sherman, which should neutralize him while Geronimo Allison has been a ghost for much of the season, having not seen more than four targets in a game since Week 7 and drawing just one last week. San Francisco was effective against running backs in the passing game throughout 2019. They didn't allow a running back touchdown through the air with the biggest game actually coming from Green Bay running back Jamaal Williams in Week 12. Williams went for 35 yards on seven catches. I'd expect the Packers to lean more heavily on their stud RB in Jones instead of the inferior talent in Williams in attempts to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

The 49ers prefer to run the ball while the Green Bay defense operated as a run-funnel unit during the past season. While the Packers shut down the pass (10th in DVOA, fourth-fewest FPPG), their run defense was just 23rd in the league in DVOA and served up the 10th-most fantasy points per game. This setup plays directly into San Francisco's wheelhouse as a run-first offense. With a positive game script for the 49ers, we could see very few pass attempts on Sunday. San Francisco is installed as 7.5-point home favorites, leaving their passing attack as my least favorite of the potential stacking options.

Jimmy Garoppolo has shown some upside this season but his ceiling is normally limited by a run-first offensive philosophy. The most likely outcome of this game is the dominant 49ers Defense shuts down the Green Bay offense while San Francisco racks up large chunks of yards on the ground. I project Garoppolo to throw the fewest pass attempts of the four quarterbacks on this slate.

If stacking the 49ers passing attack, George Kittle is an easy choice. The stud tight end is the preferred option in the passing game and draws a much better matchup than his wide receiver teammates. Of the San Francisco wide receivers, I am looking at Deebo Samuel over Emmanuel Sanders for a second-straight week. While Sanders will mostly tangle with Jaire Alexander, Samuel draws the best matchup against Kevin King. King graded out at a 62.3 over at PFF in the regular season.

 

Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More


Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More


How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More


Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More


James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More


2020 Relief Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Often regarded as an inferior fantasy baseball format, points leagues offer a different style of boasting over your friends or coworkers similar to that of fantasy football. These setups are typically head-to-head formats for a one-week stretch where the player with the most points gets a win. Easy right? While it's true that roster construction... Read More


2019 Barrel Breakouts: Who's For Real and Who's Next?

As pitchers and catchers get even closer to reporting and most fantasy leagues prepare for their drafts, everybody is looking for a leg up on the competition - a way to get in on a guy before everybody else does. In this article, we're going to look for a way to identify hitters who improved... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More


Second Year Player Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Jorge Alfaro

Miami Marlins catcher Jorge Alfaro was a key piece in the J.T. Realmuto trade that was executed before the 2019 season. The Marlins have high hopes for Alfaro and he continued his development in 2019 by slashing .262/.312/.425 with 18 HR, 57 RBI, 44 R, and 22 BB. The overall numbers may not seem all that... Read More


2020 Shortstop Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a different strategy if you wish to truly compete. Rankings themselves are a different beast altogether, as category specialists like Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon (stolen bases), Kyle Schwarber and Franmil Reyes (home runs),... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Victor Reyes

With a 457 ADP in 2020 NFBC leagues, Detroit Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes is an afterthought in all but the deepest leagues.  Perhaps the 25-year-old shouldn't be, though, as Reyes was quietly solid in 2019, slashing .304/.336/.431 in 292 plate-appearances, with three home runs and nine stolen bases. Having made stops in Arizona and the... Read More


More Recent Articles

 

RB Opportunity Share and Impact (AFC South & West): 2019 Review

We roll on with coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players of... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Anthony Miller

Many of you have already begun planning and building your 2020 rosters. This includes best-ball owners who have assembled teams in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are inspecting the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued your process of relentless roster evaluation. As the... Read More


Is Lamar Jackson Worth a First Round Pick?

RotoBaller fantasy football analysts Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano discuss the idea of taking Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in the first round of 2020 fantasy football redraft leagues. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure... Read More


Why Lamar Jackson Should Be a First-Round Pick in 2020

Sometimes I like to make noise and some headlines if I can. That is why I host shows six days a week on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio representing RotoBaller. If I can get people buzzing about a topic, calling in or responding on social media with passion and vigor, I am having fun. But whenever I... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Darren Waller

Many of you have already launched into the planning process for your 2020 rosters. This includes best-ball owners who have embraced the opportunity to draft in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are also monitoring the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued a pace of... Read More


Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Tight End

There were a lot of fantasy football busts at the tight end position in 2019, but there were also a lot of breakout stars. The 2018 season saw Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz break the NFL record for most receptions in a season by a tight end, while San Francisco’s George Kittle broke the record for most... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Courtland Sutton

With the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV, football season is over for many people. But for anyone that plays in a dynasty fantasy football league, the season is never over. For the fantasy addicts out there, now is the time to start preparing. In today's column, we will take a look at wide receiver Courtland... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Josh Allen

The NFL offseason has arrived, which means that it's time for us to go all-in on dynasty mode. The time between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is the time for dynasty players to make some moves and try to make their team better -- or worse, if you're rebuilding and looking for draft... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (NFC East & North)

With the season over and real-life free agency and April's NFL draft ahead of us, it's time to look at how each team split their targets and carries (both of them combined in what is called opportunities; sometimes it's receptions instead of targets, but I wanted to look at the overall volume and total chances instead)... Read More


Odell Beckham - Dynasty Buy or Sell?

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano discuss the dynasty value of Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.. Will he bounce back in 2020 to return WR1 fantasy football value or is he no longer an elite receiver? Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us... Read More


David Johnson - Dynasty Buy or Sell?

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano discuss the fantasy football value of Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson in dynasty leagues. Is it best to get something in return for him while you can or try to buy-low in hopes of a rebound season? Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all... Read More


Super Futures: Early 2020 Fantasy Outlooks for Chiefs and 49ers

Now that the Super Bowl is over, fantasy football purists are already looking ahead to the NFL Draft and next season. The Chiefs proved that a high-flying offense that boosted many teams to fantasy championships could also win a Super Bowl of its own. The 49ers fell short, but earning an NFC Championship was an... Read More