NFL DFS: First Look of Week 13 - Totals, Salaries, Slates, and more

November 26, 2024

Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 13 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

Happy Thanksgiving week! We are in store for a lot of NFL action this week and we're here to look at all of the data for the Sunday main slate. Let's see who it points us to and which teams to stack. We will also see who we should fade and what teams to avoid.

This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, December 1st. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 13 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 13, we will include some data from last season as well.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 13: Main Slate Only

1. Ravens - 26.5
2. Buccaneers - 26.5
3. Rams - 25.5
4. Commanders - 25
5. Texans - 24.5

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Ravens - 30.3
2. Buccaneers - 28.1
3. Commanders - 27.8
4. Bengals - 27.0
5. Eagles - 26.9

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Chargers - 15.9
2. Steelers - 16.9
3. Vikings - 17.9
4. Eagles - 18.1
5. Cardinals - 21.5

The Baltimore Ravens are leading the way alongside MVP candidate Lamar Jackson for Week 13. The Ravens have the highest implied total with 26.5 points, tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Baltimore has been firing on all cylinders and their points per game prove it with 30.3. This will be a much more difficult matchup as the Philadelphia Eagles' defense has been elite recently, ranking 7th overall. Seeing two Super Bowl contenders battle it out Sunday will be one for fireworks.

By EPA/Drive, the #Eagles now rank...
7th on offense
7th on defense pic.twitter.com/lYCaIQvx0F

— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) November 26, 2024

Week 13 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Cincinnati (1) vs. Pittsburgh (17)
2. Tampa Bay (7) vs. Carolina (24)
3. L.A. Rams (9) vs. New Orleans (30)
4. Minnesota (10) vs. New Arizona (20)
5. Houston (15) vs. Jacksonville (32)

The Cincinnati Bengals come into Week 13 as the frontrunners for passing yards per game with 262.7. Joe Burrows and company will have a difficult matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers who are currently allowing opposing offenses to average 214.9 yards per game. Granted, the Bengals have Ja'Marr Chase who is open 24/7. With Tee Higgins back, the Bengals offense also dominates even more.

Ranked 15th, the Houston Texans get a layup of a matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are giving up 278.3 passing yards per game and we can expect the Stroud to Collins connection to be alive Sunday. The Texans will be a stack that comes in at chalk but Cincinnati may have the lower ownership due to facing the Steelers. You can also rely on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Mayfield, Irving, and Evans but ownership could also land with them.

C.J. TO CADE ‼️ THAT BUCKEYE CONNECTION 🚀

📺 : @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/P6hD3b5rfH

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 24, 2024

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Pittsburgh (8) vs. Cincinnati (21)
2. New Orleans (9) vs. L.A. Rams (28)
3. Tampa Bay (10) vs. Carolina (32)
4. Tennessee (12) vs. Washington (29)
5. L.A. Chargers (13) vs. Atlanta (19)

First off, the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens matchup is not on here because both defenses have been good against the run. That doesn't mean fade Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry. Barkley would be the one to lean to over Henry as he seems to be a top-two option for the Eagles alongside A.J. Brown. Henry in the Ravens offense can sometimes get overshadowed due to the skillset of Lamar Jackson but he can still break off a 60+ yard run at any given moment.

Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are two running backs to look at as they face off against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are giving up the most rushing yards per game with 160.5 yards. White is the cheaper option of the two running backs but Irving has proven to be the more explosive weapon in the Buccaneers offense. He recorded 87 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown and six receptions for 64 receiving yards in Week 12. He also is at an affordable price.

2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Jacksonville (Stroud), Tampa Bay (Young), Baltimore (Hurts), Cincinnati (Wilson), Atlanta (Herbert)

RB - Carolina (White/Bucky), Jacksonville (Mixon), Indianapolis (Stevenson), Tampa Bay (Hubbard), New Orleans (Williams)

WR -Baltimore (Brown), Minnesota (Harrison Jr.), Atlanta (McConkey), New Orleans (Kupp/Nucua), Tampa Bay (Legette)

TE - Carolina (Otton), Cincinnati (Freiermuth), Tampa Bay (Tremble), Indianapolis (Henry), Jacksonville (Schultz)

DEF - TEN (WAS), NE (IND), IND (NE), MIN (ARI), ATL (LAC)

The Carolina Panthers have returned to Bryce Young starting under center, which seems to be working. While they couldn't defeat the Kansas City Chiefs, Young looked like a quarterback who should lead a franchise. Now, he gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are giving up 255.5 yards through the air, 120.7 yards on the ground, and 24.8 points per game. Stacking Young with Legette or Adam Thielen alongside Chuba Hubbard could be a very sneaky stack.

The tight end position could be one where you have to one-off this Sunday as there is no clear-cut one to play. Tayson Hill could have another unique week but is that one to roll the dice on? The ownership should be pretty evenly spread out and not a position to overly stress about.

Week 13 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.

And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters, especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.

To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.

FanDuel Values (FD vs. DK)

1. Tony Pollard ($7K vs. $6.3K)
2. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6.4K vs. $5.9K)
3. Xavier Legette ($5.8K vs. $5.1K)
4. Tank Dell ($6.4K vs. $5.9K)
5. DeMario Douglas ($5.6K vs. $4.7K)

DraftKings Values (DK vs. FD)

1. Bryce Young ($4.7K vs. $6.6K)
2. Bucky Irving ($5.8K vs. $7.2K)
3. Cade Otton ($4.5K vs. $6.2K)
4. Joshua Palmer ($4.3K vs. $5.5K)
5. Jordan Addison ($5.3K vs. $6.3K)

Cheap Stacks (DK vs. FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Darnold - Addison ($11.2K vs. $13.5K)
2. Young - Legette ($9.8K vs. $12.4K)
3. Maye - Douglas ($10.3K vs. $12.4K)
4. Smith - Smith-Njigba ($11.8K vs. $15.3K)
5. Levis - Ridley ($10.7K vs. $13.5K)
6. Herbert - Palmer ($9.9K vs. $13.4K)

Alright, that's it for Week 13 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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