Week 1 always has its share of surprises. We haven't seen most of these teams play in eight months. In fact, we really haven't seen any of these teams ever play; like the water in a stream, they are all new and different teams. So if you rely too much on last season's numbers and assessments when betting on Week 1, you are apt to lose. Betters and markets overvalue the strength of the previous season's playoff teams even though half of them will miss the playoffs the next season.

When prior playoff teams face teams that missed the playoffs the previous year, the line error is particularly large: -4.3 on average, according to a 2012 thesis by then-Ohio University business administration student Michael D. DiFilippo (an error that disappears by Week 2). Only 34% of prior playoff teams beat the spread in Week 1 from 2004-2011. The data is over a decade old now, but we saw it happen last season: the Bears outright upset the 49ers, the Steelers beat the Bengals, and the Lions kept the Eagles to a three-point margin.

This week, I have a couple of matchups featuring 2023 playoff teams that are overrated or have been given too large of a spread in Week 1 that I have determined are good plays.

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Week 1 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (NYJ +2.5)

Monday, 8:15 pm | OU: 46.5 (my pick: over)

If you compare these two teams position-by-position, you have to admit the Jets are at least as good--and probably better--than the Bills on paper. They both have one elite receiver, but the Jets' Garrett Wilson is younger than the Bills' Stefon Diggs, and the Jets arguably have more depth behind Wilson.

The Jets' running back room of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook is one of the best in the league and much better than the Bills'. The offensive lines of both teams are equally subpar, and their defenses are equally good. Now the Jets have a quarterback who is not only capable of running the offense but might still be one of the best in the business.

It's true that we haven't seen these Jets play together in the regular season. Aaron Rodgers might be on the decline, but I think his relatively worse play last season was mostly because he was out of sync with his young wide receivers and unhappy with the Packers. The presence of Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator on a team led by a defensive-minded head coach is scary, too! But if you believe in your own analysis, you should go in on it in Week 1. Not only will the Jets beat the spread, they will win this game outright.

Pick: Jets ML (+117), Bet 1 Unit

 

Week 1 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans (HOU +9.5)

Sunday, 1:00 pm | OU: 44 (push)

Here is another game where a previous year's playoff team is facing a lesser team from the year before and is given a huge handicap in the spread. I do not disagree with the overall assessment that the Ravens are a top-ten team and that the Texans are likely to finish in the bottom ten. I even think the Ravens have something like a 65% chance of winning; they are my biggest favorite of the week. However, a 9.5 spread is too large to expect the Ravens to cover.

The Texans have a top 10-14 running back room. Capable former Bill Devin Singletary joins a unit that Dameon Pierce led with 939 yards as a rookie. The Ravens have a weak defensive line but excellent linebackers. The Texans will move the ball enough to eat up the clock and score a couple of touchdowns.

The Ravens have been a run-heavy team, and, while we don't know what their new offense will look like, it would be foolish of them to abandon the run. The last thing we heard about the development of their new offense was that it is a work in progress. So they shouldn't be expected to fire on all cylinders in Week 1.

Pick: Texans +9.5 (+110), Bet 1 Unit

 

Week 1 NFL Betting Picks - Game Total

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals (ARI +7)

Sunday, 1:00 pm | OU: 38.5 (under)

In this highly-anticipated showdown, Sam Howell, the Commanders QB who completed 57.9% of his passes in his only NFL start, stares down Joshua Dobbs, who has attempted a total of 73 passes since 2020. Both teams boast bottom-seven offensive lines--no matter whose rankings you trust. The Cardinals cut alpha WR DeAndre Hopkins, who was their best offensive weapon, this offseason, and while the Commanders boast depth at running back, they all make you say "meh."

The over-under of 38.5 is already the lowest of the week. The Commanders are 7-point favorites. That implies that the Commanders will win by a score of something like 23-16. But the Commanders have a relatively strong defense anchored by a top-five defensive line. Granted Chase Young might miss the game with a stinger, but he also missed most of the past two seasons. When Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat are put against a Cardinals offensive line including Hjalte Foholdt, Elijah Wilkinson, and rookie Paris Johnson Jr., the Commanders are going to win big up front.

The Joshua Dobbs-led Titans scored 13 points and 16 points in his two starts last season. Cardinals RB James Conner is aggressive at powering through tackles, but he is considerably worse than Derrick Henry.

Pick: Game total under 38.5, Bet 1 Unit

 

Other Picks Against the Spread I Like

Bucs (+6) @ Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings had a poor-quality defense last season. This year, as a result of their "competitive" rebuild, they stripped and neglected what few parts it had. They traded DE Za'Darius Smith to the Browns for draft picks. They let LB Eric Kendricks walk. It was the same with CB Patrick Peterson and DT Dalvin Tomlinson. Worse, the players they drafted in anticipation of having to lose starters have not panned out. CB Andrew Booth Jr., whom the Vikings drafted in the second round, is still on the bench. Baker Mayfield can let the ball fly, and the Bucs' top two receivers are among the best in the NFL.

Colts (+4.5) vs. Jaguars

Anthony Richardson runs all over the Jaguars' questionable defense. The Jaguars have been one of the most hyped teams of the offseason, but their weaknesses are being overlooked. They were one Chargers collapse away from losing in the Wild Card Round. Their hype is being carried by Trevor Lawrence's impressive surge in the second half of last season. They are ripe to be the victims of a Week 1 scare.

Eagles (-3.5) @ Patriots

The Eagles are too good, and the Patriots are too overmatched for this to be a close game.

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