NFL Betting Picks for Conference Championship Round - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

January 29, 2023

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for the Conference Championship of the 2022-23 NFL playoffs. His free pick targets the moneyline.

The divisional round went almost as expected, with the Bengals shocking a lot of people by dismantling the Bills on their home turf. Little do people realize, the Bengals haven't lost since October 31 and are playing an amazing brand of football right now. For my play, I certainly didn't expect the Giants to only score seven points, but Philly just totally dominated.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 24-22, +1.1 units
• Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
• Total/Team Total: 11-14, -4.25 units
• Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
• Props: 0-0
• Parlays/Teasers: 2-0, +2.7 units

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Divisional Round NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Saturday 1/29, 6:30pm PM EST | O/U: 48

The Bengals rolled into Buffalo and embarrassed the Bills, winning 27-10 and advancing to their second consecutive AFC Championship game. Joe Burrow seems to be getting a lot of the spotlight but his best asset is that he's taken care of the football. Joe Mixon posted just his second 100-yard game of the season last week, but this type of balance on offense could easily propel Cincy to another Super Bowl appearance.

The obvious note for Kansas City is Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury, but all systems seem to be a-go for the signal caller, after being a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He threw two touchdowns in the Divisional Round game and got backup from a strong ground game in Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Obviously, the coaching staff might deflect any "bad" news of Mahomes ankle, but the guy is a game changer, and banged up or not, you can expect his best.

Are you a believer in hype? I am at times. However, sometimes that hype can feed into the opponent thinking they're being undervalued. With a team like the Chiefs, they should not be undervalued, even playing a wagon as the Bengals have been. I know this number has jumped all over the place based on the Mahomes news, but it's been sitting steady over the last day now so it's not necessarily a value play, but it is the right play, in my opinion. Give me the Kansas City moneyline.

Pick: Kansas City moneyline (-120, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit

More Fantasy Football Advice