December 2, 2017

Leo assesses fantasy basketball value on hot streaking NBA players in Week 7.

Hey folks, it's time for another new basketball feature on RotoBaller.

Today we'll be taking a look at some players who have been on fire over the last week and try to make a guess about how much of that is just a hot streak and how much of it is real.  Then we'll make a guess at what's realistic fair value in trade for our star.

Let's dive in and take a look at some surging players in Week 7.

NBA Heat Check

Pau Gasol, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs

As an aging but talented veteran on the Spurs, Pau Gasol’s minutes are always at risk of being managed. But he’s been reliable as ever and seems to have gotten himself into a good groove this season. He averaged only 9.4 points per game through the first 10 games of the season, and then 13.3 through the next 11 games. Even without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup this year, his 19.3% usage rate has remained relatively stable from his rate of 21.3% last season. His field goal attempts have also only marginally decreased from 9.4 last year to 8.5 this year, but he’s taking more threes, meaning he’s able to score more with less shot attempts.

Nevertheless, it’s unlikely that his points will continue trending upward. It’s almost never a good idea to bet on increased production from a veteran that’s on the wrong side of 35 years old, unless he’s a vegan like Tom Brady. Pau averaged 12.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks last year, and his numbers this year are almost identical at 11.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks. His numbers might dip below or rise above these averages, but he’ll always trend back towards them. This explains his poor start and now upward swing. Especially with Kawhi Leonard seemingly getting healthier, a good trade target might be Courtney Lee for those in need of guards.

Lou Williams, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers

Drake once rapped that he was a “six man like Lou Will.” But the former Sixth Man of the Year has found himself catching fire in the starting five, with 42 points against the Lakers on Monday night. In that 2014-2015 season with Toronto when Lou won the award, he had a 27.0% usage rate. Through 19 games this year, it’s been 27.8%. He’ll continue getting his fair share of touches, especially with Blake Griffin sidelined for up to two months with a knee injury. Even with the volume, he’s shooting the second highest field goal percentage of his career, at 45.6%. It’s not a coincidence that his 42.5% three-point attempt rate is his lowest since 2011-2012. As long as he continues taking closer shots, his field goal percentage will be sustainable.

But he’s not just a percentages guy--he’s also scoring 18.6 points a game. The last time he did that was through 58 games with the Lakers last season. His scoring ability isn’t a fluke and is one of his fantasy strengths. Lou’s assists per game, however, will likely take a dip with Austin Rivers’ minutes trending up and with Milos Teodisic on his way back within the month. In all other categories, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. But if you need stats in other categories, Thaddeus Young or Nikola Vucevic would be good trade targets.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Los Angeles Lakers

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is playing the most efficient basketball of his five-year career, with career highs in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Over the last four games, he’s scored a jaw-dropping 22.8 points while shooting 46.4% from the field. His rebounding has been especially noteworthy at 5.3 per game, exactly two more than last year. Tack on career highs in assists and steals, and baby, we’ve got a stew going.

This is his first season with the Lakers and it looks like the change of scenery is serving him well. The Lakers are a young team that enjoys running the floor and it shows--they’re leading the league in pace this season. Caldwell-Pope is a big part of their young core and he’s playing almost 35 minutes per game. He’ll undoubtedly have plenty of opportunities to make plays going forward and rack up counting stats. But he’s shooting a career high 50.2% of his attempts from beyond the arc. He’s young and improving, so there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic that he continues hitting them at a career high 35.4%. But this is a stat to keep an eye on since he’s shooting threes with such volume. If you want to trade him, Harrison Barnes might be a more proven player whose owner is willing to trade for Caldwell-Pope’s upside.

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