I hope you've all survived your New Year's hangovers and aren't having too much trouble in shaking the cobwebs out of your brain as you return to work. Most importantly, though, I hope you're ready for another week of Association hoops. A lot of price changes around the league as players return from injuries (Isiah Thomas, anyone?) and others hit the shelf, so there's much to discuss.

Before I get further off on a tangent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore.

Let's take a look.

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DFS Value Risers - Week 12

Kyle Lowry (PG, TOR) 

I don't know which game (if any?) sparked the massive drop in Lowry's price over the past week or so, but I know that I appreciate the savings and will find a lot of use for him this week. It's no secret that the offensive engine for the Raptors is made up of four shoulders - those that belong to DeMar DeRozan and those of Kyle Lowry. He commands a really strong Usage rate this season (22.2%) and is producing fantasy point totals on a per minute basis that are not quite elite, but close at 1.16. A Usage rate that high with a 59% True Shooting percentage is a recipe for a high ceiling, and the assists and rebounds he collects help to create a pretty sturdy floor. In the past 10 days, Lowry's DraftKings price has come down all of $900, and, in that stretch he has beaten his price implied total four times (with three games eclipsing 40 DK points). In the 2017-18 season, Lowry has hit or surpassed value 83% of the time, making him one of the most consistent point guards in this price tier. He's a solid cash play in most situations, and his 50+ ceiling (one he's actually achieved recently) puts him in tournament consideration, too.

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, BKN)

Value risers were a little tough to come by this week. Sure, every $100 interval of savings is helpful, but throwing someone on this list who had just a slight bump down (which may just be based on tonight's matchups, too, and change right back) seems cheap. Dinwiddie's price has fluctuated a bit over the past week to 10 days, but it's down roughly $700. What I like about this savings is that his new price seems fair. Since the drop in price, he's been within a point or two of value each night. In cash games, we want to find the guys with plus value, not just those that can reach it. In tournament formats, however, my interest is piquing. We can accept this type of variance and embrace it. Here we have a point guard who doesn't always have the offense run through his hands (his Usage rates have been all over the board in the Nets' last few games - 12%, 15%, 21%, 26%), but when he does, he can crush value at what will likely be a lower ownership, due to the fact he's cooled off from his hot start.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 12

Josh Richardson (SG/SF, MIA)

A rise of $2,000 in on DraftKings in such a short time is wild to see, even if it is mostly warranted. Richardson was playing some great basketball (albeit on a short roster, which gave way to extra minutes) over the past two weeks, but with James Johnson nearing a return and Hassan Whiteside back in the fold, those minutes are likely to be shortened, and the Usage rate is going to take a hit. Richardson should still see a good chunk of playing time and has a pretty solid role as a cog in the offense, but I doubt we see Usage rates in the mid twenties for him with all the key Heat players wanting their fair share. Thanks to his ability to rack up steals at a rate much more impressive than his peers, he is not totally out of play, but his value took a massive hit with this rise in price. Since this salary raise hit its peak, he's 0-for-2 in hitting value, and has only hit once in his last four games overall.

Lance Stephenson (SG/SF, IND)

Another shooting guard/small forward with increased playing time, and another $2,000 (!!) spike on DraftKings in the past week. Lance has been eating up the minutes the injured Victor Oladipo left on the Pacers' table, and, for the most part, he's taken advantage with some strong outputs. What he has accompanied those strong outputs with, however, are some absolute duds. In the past week, he's missed hitting value three times - once by double digits. He's been up and down, and what I am trying to say is that a player who is rarely ever trustworthy (particularly in cash games) has remained that way, even with his increase in minutes and Usage rate. He's highly volatile, and his types are best left for tournament play where we can stomach those risks. He's also priced far too high to give us 4-5 times his price implied value. As such, he's better left on your fantasy bench until Oladipo returns, the price drops, and he can wreak (occasional) havoc with the Pacers' second unit.

 

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