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The 2022-2023 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for tonight, October 18.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Joel Embiid OVER 11.5 Rebounds - I'll start off the season with my guy, Joel Embiid. Normally I take these plays based on trends, for example when a player hits a line in each of his last five games, I'll ride the trend. That isn't the case tonight with Embiid, as he hit this number in just two of his last five, three of his last ten, and in just two of four games against Boston last season. However, my data model gives him an absolutely whopping projection of 16.2 rebounds tonight with a ceiling of 19.9 rebounds, which is a value I simply cannot pass up.
LeBron James OVER 26.5 Points - On the flip side of Embiid, LeBron crushed this line at the end of his 2021 season. Prior to shutting it down at the end of the year, LeBron hit this number in each of his last five games, as well as eight of his last ten and in two of three against Golden State. My model projects LeBron for 28.8 points tonight, with a ceiling of 34.0 points.
Klay Thompson OVER 2.0 Assists - Finally, I'll go on the other side of the late game tonight, with Klay Thompson's assists. While Klay hit this in just three of his final five games in 2021, and seven of his last ten, he did hit this number in two of three against the Lakers as well as a 72% clip on the season. My model projects Klay for 2.5 assists tonight, with a ceiling of 3.6 assists, so we're getting good value here.
NOTE: Make sure you take advantage of Steph Curry OVER 0.5 points that PrizePicks is offering for tonight's slate. Pair that with any of these plays and you should be in for a good night! 🙂
Other Recommendations - Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made, LeBron James OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made, Marcus Smart OVER 4.5 Assists
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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