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The 2022-2023 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Tuesday, February 28.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Talen Horton-Tucker UNDER 14.5 1h Points+Rebounds+Assists: To start off today's slate, I'll be looking at Talen Horton-Tucker's first-half PRA prop. In his last five games, Horton-Tucker has been under this number every time, averaging just 8.6 PRA during that span. Even though Collin Sexton (hamstring) has been ruled out, putting Horton-Tucker into the starting lineup, I still don't expect him to hit the over. He's facing the San Antonio Spurs again after playing them just three nights ago, where he only scored a combined five points, rebounds, and assists in the first half. I think 14.5 is way too high, especially considering his recent game log, and I see good value in taking the under here.
Kelly Olynyk OVER 6 Rebounds: Next, let's go right back to the Jazz-Spurs matchup and take a look at Kelly Olynyk's rebounds prop. Surprisingly, Olynyk's line is set at just six rebounds, despite going up against the San Antonio Spurs, who allow the most rebounds to opposing centers/forwards in the league. Olynyk has gone over this number in four of his last five outings, averaging 8.4 rebounds during that span. In his recent matchup against the Spurs, he grabbed eight boards in just 23 minutes. I expect Olynyk to hit the over again here, where he should see more playing time as he averages 28.1 minutes. The books have his odds at -155 to go over 5.5 rebounds, which suggests a safe push play, at the least. My prop model also supports this play, projecting Olynyk to grab 6.9 rebounds, showing decent value here.
Jakob Poeltl OVER 20.5 Points+Rebounds: I'll wrap things up with Jakob Poeltl's PR prop. Poeltl has exceeded this number in four of his last five games, playing only 25 minutes in the game he went under. He's averaging 26.8 points+rebounds during that span as well as 29.2 minutes. Tonight, he'll be facing the Chicago Bulls, and he has gone over this number in all five of his last five outings while going up against Nikola Vucevic. The odds for this prop are pretty even in the books, but based on recent game logs and previous matchups, I see great value here.
Other Recommendations - Lauri Markkanen UNDER 3.5 3-pt, Jakob Poeltl OVER 8.5 Rebounds, Jrue Holiday OVER 6 Assists, Anthony Davis OVER 40.5 Points+Rebounds.
Remember, it's Taco Tuesday! Be sure to get that Trae Young taco paired with any of the plays above!
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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