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The 2022-2023 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Thursday, March 23.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Kawhi Leonard UNDER 4.5 Assists: I'll start off today's slate with Kawhi Leonard's assists prop. Leonard has only exceeded this projection in two of his last five games, averaging 3.6 assists during that span. Paul George (knee) will be out tonight, which will help Leonard's rebounds average go up by .4, but his assists actually are lower by .2 in games played without George this season. Leonard only averages 3.9 assists, so bumping him here to a line of 4.5 seems like a stretch. The Clippers will be facing the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, and after playing them two days ago, Leonard recorded 5 assists, but that was with George hitting tough shots of his kick outs. The books like Leonard to go under 4.5 assists with -130 odds in favor, while one sportsbook even has him lying at -175 to go under. My prop model also supports this play, projecting Leonard for 3.81 assists. Let's see Kawhi unlock his inner Kobe tonight and forget how to pass the ball.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 5.5 Rebounds: Next up, let's go right back to the Thunder-Clippers matchup and take a look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's rebounds prop. Gilgeous-Alexander has gone under this projection in two of his last five games and is averaging 5.6 rebounds during that span. Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's clear star, but that stems from his offensive skills, and he isn't known to be a board-collecting guard. I don't see him collecting six boards tonight, as he will probably guard Russell Westbrook and be at the top of the key most of the time. The books love this play at -140 odds to go under, and my prop model projects him for only 4.90 rebounds tonight. I'm trusting the numbers on this one, let's see what they can do for us.
Gary Harris UNDER 9 Points: I'll wrap things up with Gary Harris' points prop. Harris has only gone over this projection in one of his last five games and is averaging 9.2 points during that span. Tonight Harris faces a slow-paced New York Knicks team, and the last time the Magic played the Knicks, Harris finished with just three points. The books have him listed at 8.5 points with a slight lean on the over, while some have him at 9.5 with -160 on the under. My prop model loves this play projecting him for 7.45 points tonight. Consider this a safe push play at the minimum, with great upside to go under. Let's hope for the Knicks to shut this guy down tonight and do whatever it takes to prevent him from putting the ball in the hoop.
Other Recommendations - Jalen Williams OVER 9.5 RA, Nic Claxton 12.5 1h PRA, Kelly Oubre Jr. OVER 22.5 Points, Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 8.5 Rebounds
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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