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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for December 4th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his daily fantasy basketball advice.
We have 10 games tonight, and while I tried to find props that weren't just points, my safest bets turned out to be revolving around points. I won't let gambler's fallacy sway me in making some of these picks so it looks like you're stuck with what I chose.
Regardless, all these picks are lined up to have good games, and while betting the under works in certain situations, I tried to stay away from unpredictable players in bad matchups. No matter how many times you watch Rodney Hood flop against quality teams, you should know better than to pick against a natural shooter in any situation. Maybe not the best example, but Rodney Hood has been putting in work lately and since he's from Mississippi, he deserves the recognition.
Find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester. This is a great time for NBA content as Christmas time rolls around. If you have more questions about these prop bets or other NBA DFS situations, hit me up throughout the day on Twitter.
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Buddy Hield (SAC) OVER 23.5 Points
You have the choice to go with Buddy Hield or Damian Lillard tonight, both with a benchmark of scoring 23.5 points. There is no reason why both shouldn't be carrying their teams in terms of shot attempts and points by the end of the game. The Trail Blazers defense hasn't seen much improvement and the same can be said for the Kings backcourt. Lillard has been in a small slump so hopefully getting in a shootout with an up and coming star will fix that.
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Blake Griffin (DET) OVER 20.5 Points
There's a lot of substance behind this pick, mainly that everything is lined up for Blake Griffin to hit the over. He is playing the Bucks who lack frontcourt strength, the one thing really needed to keep Griffin from scoring. On the other hand, against the Cavaliers he only scored 24 points despite blowing them out. I originally had Blake Griffin hitting the under and just not having a solid game in terms of efficiency, but the more thoughts of this matchup linger in my head, the more I see Griffin waltzing into the paint and scoring 22 with ease.
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LeBron James (LAL) OVER 26.5 Points
There's a pretty significant theory that playing against the Jazz hurts overall production. While that is true for a ton of players that thrive in transition, this is LeBron James. Scoring in transition might be his strong suit, but he by no means needs that to happen to be effective. James has become fairly notorious for owning the Jazz when he plays, so look for that type of streak to continue. If you need another suggestion, I like the under on Donovan Mitchell and think Bojan Bogdanovic is going to be the leading scorer for the Jazz tonight.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) OVER 17.5 Points
If you have been doing your research, you'll notice that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having one of the worst shooting streaks of his career. His past three outings, he has shot at 40% or below, despite scoring 17 on 17 shots three nights ago. The Pacers defense has been inconsistent this season and while they should be near the top in terms of limiting opposing guards, they aren't and it's pretty clear why when you watch them play.
They lack the experience needed to stop athletic guards and lack the athleticism needed to stop smart players. All in all, the guards will be scoring tonight and Malcolm Brogdon should be safe for 20 points as well.
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Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) OVER 25.5 Points
It might be more fun to bet on Luka Doncic and cheer him on with optimism, but there are two guarantees about this game. The Mavericks frontcourt is tall, but weak, and Karl-Anthony Towns scores 30 when he plays Dallas. He has yet to experience playing against Kristaps Porzingis on the Mavericks, but I can't see that altering Towns' output. He might get a few blocks here and there but when it comes down to it, Towns is going to be able to get wherever he wants on the court and tonight he should do most of his work in the paint.
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