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Tommy Bell provides his NBA DFS prop picks for November 19th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his daily fantasy basketball advice.
If DraftKings or FanDuel has not been your friend this season, maybe try something new. At Monkey Knife Fight, wager on different styles of props bets from any game available on that night. Tonight, with this being my first article on the topic and with so many games available, we are going to keep it simple and go with one wager from the All-Day Star Shootout bets, one from the early slate and then another from the late.
Nothing special, but since this will be a consistent Wednesday piece, we will alter it accordingly each week. There are so many enticing options that unlike my DFS articles, we will be looking at the automatic pick rather than big-risk, big-reward plays. We don't care about how well they play, as long as it coincides with the over-31.5 points bet we made on Giannis Antetokounmpo for tonight.
If you have more questions about this prop bets or other NBA DFS situations, find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter.
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James Harden (HOU) OVER 37.5 Points
Do you really want to fade James Harden on the night that he should go for 60? We want 40 tonight and we should get it without a problem. The Nuggets are already game planning a way to stop Harden, but we know how that goes. Not a single team has been able to stop or put a limit on James Harden, and the only way he doesn't score 40 tonight is if he has a bad game. The Nuggets can throw Gary Harris at him, Jamal Murray, Harris and Murray, it doesn't really matter. Harden has been scraping at 40 more times than he has scraped at 30 so just expect a good game and make the smart bet. Funny to think betting on someone to score 40 again is a smart bet, but it is.
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Luka Doncic (DAL) OVER 29.5 Points
Just listen to who the Warriors let up points to LAST night, despite winning. 15 on 11 shots from Jae Crowder, 18 points on 17 attempts from Dillon Brooks, and lastly 17 points on 14 tries from Brandon Clarke. From a Memphis Grizzlies standpoint, that's bad. Horrible efficiency from the Grizzlies, but the shot attempts is what is important. Doncic is coming off a career-game.
Let's read that again. A future Hall of Famer is coming off a career game. Young players, rookies, defensive-minded guards and bigs, all these players tend to have bad games after they breakout. Not future Hall of Famers. 35 seems like a more reasonable landmark if we are being honest.
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Kemba Walker (BOS) OVER 26.5 Points
This is the riskiest pick of the night. Kemba Walker hasn't been scoring like the Hornets Kemba Walker, but we know exactly why that is. He has a better team and simply doesn't need to produce like he used to. With that, he is facing the Clippers which arguably has one of the league's most intimidating defenses. They might not hold teams to minimal stats, but they absolutely shift the production of their opponents into certain channels. Since they are so tough to beat individually, look for Walker to do a majority of facilitating that ends with him getting the ball back on the perimeter.
He hasn't been able to hit 30 but three times this season, two times coming versus the Knicks. I am going to be honest, by the end of this game I feel like Walker will be sitting at 22 or 23 points and will hit a three and another shot to put him just above the 26.5 threshold. Walker has above this marker only 4 times this season, but it should be a low enough number for him to hit tonight even if Patrick Beverley decides to guard him. After hitting 47 threes in his first 11 games of the season, he has hit on over the past two games. That should change and Walker should be picking up a ton of slack tonight.
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