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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to the first edition of Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! I started doing some betting picks last season pretty late in the year and some moderate success, especially with betting totals. This year I wanted to start on day one (well, day one for most of the teams in the league) with some betting picks several times a week.
I'm aiming for Mondays, Wednesdays. and Fridays for this column as long as I can pull that off and still cover the NFL every week for our RotoBaller premium DFS subscribers! Last night I took the Warriors at +135 as I was counting on the Lakers being rusty and not very coherent on offense with their newest member Russell Westbrook and was pumped to see them pick up that win. So I am unofficially 1-0 so far this year, but I won't count any picks I put on Twitter on my official record for this column. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, October 20th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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NBA Betting Picks Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 0-0
- Against the Spread 0-0
- Over/Under 0-0
- Teasers/Parlays 0-0
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (-5.5) @ Detroit Pistons
So this spread just jumped a half-point in the time it took me to write this article and it could keep moving in the direction of the Bulls, but I really like Chicago to cover tonight. Last year they finished the season strong after adding Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline and they brought in Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan through trades and free agency this offseason.
The foursome of Zach LaVine, Vucevic, DeRozan, and Ball is going to put the Bulls in the mix this year as a potential top-4 team in the East. Ball adds some much-needed defensive presence while DeRozan adds a proven scorer who can help take the load off LaVine offensively. Vucevic continues to be one of the more underrated big men in the game and his offensive skillset should mesh nicely with the Bulls guards.
This Chicago team was smoking teams in the preseason and while I know those scores don't really mean much in the grand scheme of things, I do think we sometimes tend to underestimate the importance of the preseason for teams with new players - getting them to mesh with their new teammates doesn't happen without time on the court together. We saw the Lakers really struggle last night at times getting Westbrook involved and their lack of minutes together in the preseason really showed as they lost to an inferior team.
Chicago's big four did log a lot of time together this preseason and looked great. I think they have no problem handling a rebuilding Detroit team that really lacks offensive firepower. They are a young team that has Jerami Grant as their top scorer for Pete's sake. I think the Bulls blow them out of the water and even on the road, this spread is too narrow.
The Pick: Chicago -5.5 (good up to -6.5), -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+2.5) @ Toronto Raptors (219.5 total)
So betting totals has been my thing now for the last year and I have been really focused on trying to find games we can attack using statistical models. This year I have tweaked my model and I feel pretty good about my new inputs, however, I want to caution everyone here because today's ratings as usually last year's team stats.
So there's one game that is REALLY popping in the model here and it's a big enough discrepancy that I feel pretty good about betting it. This Washington-Toronto game projects for over 230 in my model and while that's probably a tad inflated, I do think it's one of the strongest plays on the board as it's only at 219.5 right now.
Washington's lineup is significantly different with Westbrook gone and Dinwiddie/Kuzma as new additions in the starting lineup. But if anything, they are a better, more well-rounded team with their new starting five. Toronto is now missing Kyle Lowry, but I think they look to play faster this year with Fred VanVleet leading the way.
If we need some other positive trends, these teams played their final preseason game against each other last week and it hit 221 total points. The game was sitting at 116 total points at halftime and was trending towards 232 before many of the starters were rested in the second half.
Both teams were in the top half of the league in offensive rating this preseason and both were playing at a pace of around 104 possessions per game. Preseason pace numbers are usually a tad inflated, but there's certainly reason to believe that this game is played faster than the league average of 99.7.
Let's take the over here and if you're feeling bold, grab an alternate total a point or two higher for even better odds!
The Pick: Over 219.5 (good up to 221.5), -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
Sometimes I will be posting teasers with point totals, but I won't feel really good about totals for a few slates until we get several games worth of data to crunch.
Today, I am keeping it simple with what I call a "bankroll builder" bet. Moneyline parlays are a nice way to build some bankroll and I often think of them as similar to cash games in DFS. We are looking at three teams with very high win probabilities here and a chance to double our money if they do what we expect them to do.
We already like Chicago against the spread and Memphis is another large favorite who looked great in preseason facing a rebuilding Cavs team. Utah is the biggest favorite on the slate but I'm not laying 12 points on teams in the NBA all that often. Despite the odds being -850, adding that game takes us over the +100 threshold which is what I am looking for with these types of bets.
The Pick: Utah/Memphis/Chicago ML Parlay (+118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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