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The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays we have identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a much larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. For this week, we use DraftKings prices as a basis, but much of what we recommend here also can be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS Research Station Spotlights: O’Reilly Auto Parts 253
Vegas Odds
The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake.
This week at the Daytona International Speedway Road Course, Vegas Odds become even more essential. With only one official Cup race at the site, there is an obvious limit on more solid historical stats we can refer to for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Chase Elliott, the defending champion of this week’s race, has the best odds to win this race, which is no surprise, yet Martin Truex Jr. has the second-best odds to win, He starts from the 19th position and offers a great combination of Place Differential upside and potential for a very strong finish. We always recommend employing multiple lineups and you should have some heavy Truex shares.
-Ryan Blaney is tied for third for the best odds and Implied Odds (nine percent) to win, and he is going to be widely rostered because he starts 27th. You should not move off Blaney because many other competitors will have him in a tournament. He will help you rise up in the tourney fields. You will just have to differentiate which drivers are used around him to make your lineups more unique.
-A.J. Allmendinger has 61 percent odds to finish in the Top 10. He has become something of a road course specialist at this point of his career and is a strong start whenever he is in the field at these type of tracks. Allmendinger is a terrific Place Differential option from a starting position of 34th. He has not raced at this track yet in the Cup series, but that should not deter you from using Allmendinger this week. He has two finishes inside the Top 10 in his last four road course races. While this particular “roval” track is unique to the Cup series you still have to maintain much confidence in Allmendinger at any type of road course.
-After winning the Daytona 500, Michael McDowell starts second, and many other DFS players may fade him based on his starting position of second. There won’t be nearly the same amount of cars wrecking out this week, decreasing McDowell’s perceived amount of chances to prevail again vs. a depleted field. It could be widely assumed that McDowell will drop in the field and cost you important PD points. But he has odds of 43 percent to finish in the Top 10 and he is a very good driver on road course type of tracks. McDowell may still earn a very good finish and you can offset any PD losses by combining him with some upside performers who start deeper in the field.
Recent Road Course Finishes
While the Daytona Road Course is unique compared to other road courses, viewing recent results at all road courses gives us a pretty good view of who may fare better in this week’s event. The recent results actually include this season’s Busch Clash at the site, which is not an official Cup event in the standings, yet is another good set of results to consult.
-Erik Jones finished eighth in the Busch Clash, and third at the Charlotte Road Course last season. Jones is starting 37th this week and that sort of positioning will assure a driver of his status that he will be heavily rostered. As with Blaney, though, differentiate around him in various lineups. Combining McDowell and Jones is a good lineup compromise for PD return and quality finishes.
-Tyler Reddick finished fourth in the Clash and 12th at the Charlotte Road Course last season. Reddick also placed 17th at Sonoma in 2019. Reddick starts 24th and is a very good DFS target this week to gain some PD points and push for a finish higher in the field. Reddick was fourth in Quality Passes in the Busch Clash (passes of cars in the Top 15 under green flag conditions, 26).
DraftKings Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
This statistical category for either site identifies drivers who may stand out among others in the same price range and can also help you make some tough lineup decisions. You can consult results from last year’s Daytona Road Course, recent and long term road course stats, and overall Fantasy Point data.
-Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Chris Buescher had 24.8 DraftKings points gained vs. similar drivers. He also has 11.0 points gained vs. similar drivers in his recent road course races. He starts 30th this week and is often one of the better value plays in the field. Buescher finished fifth in this event last season and has finished in the Top 20 in his last 10 road courses races. He will likely make a play to finish at least in the Top 15-20 range.
-Matt DiBenedetto has 17.6 points gained vs. similar drivers in recent road course races. He also has 9.0 points gained vs. similar drivers in terms of longer term results at road courses. DiBenedetto is another one of those quality PD plays this week, from a starting position of 32nd. He also has a 16.3 Driver Rating gained vs. similar drivers in recent road course races.
