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Corey Johnson's NFL DFS prop picks for the Browns vs 49ers Monday Night Football contests. Use these Week 5 recommendations to win on Monkey Knife Fight.
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Week 5 of Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Browns and 49ers. From a fantasy and real-life prospective, I am really excited for this game. Both "up and coming" teams have a mixture of talented youth and veterans-- a quality football game is in store to make your Monday a little more enjoyable!
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Pick 1: Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 260.5 passing yards and Baker Mayfield OVER 259.5 passing yards
In general, both of these team's passing defenses have been pretty solid this year-- they both rank within the top 10 of the NFL. However, there is a pretty clear difference between how Garoppolo and Mayfield will want to play this game. Garoppolo has led the 49ers to a 3-0 start by being an excellent game manager-- he has yet to surpass the 300 passing yard mark, including a sub-200 yard passing game in Week 1.
Garoppolo isn't flashy and will look to win this game slow and steady; in combination with a solid Browns' passing defense, he should stay below that 260.5 yard mark more often than not. As for Baker, he loves to move the ball through the air-- he has two 300+ passing yard games (325 and 342) and a 285 passing yard game. As mentioned, the 49ers passing defense is solid but there is a chance that the Browns will be down in this game and will look to move the ball through the air numerous times.
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Pick 2: Over/Under Fantasy Point Contest
Recommended Prop Pick
Odell Beckham Jr OVER 16.5 fantasy points and Deebo Samuel UNDER 10.5 fantasy points
As mentioned above, I think that the Browns are forced (and will want to) move the ball through the air and that the 49ers will likely try to grind out a win equally through the air and on the ground. With that being said, OBJ should see just about 10 targets and has the potential of seeing 15. In the PPR format that MKF offers, as long as OBJ can collect 6-7 of those targets, he has a great chance of surpassing 16.5 fantasy points, even without a touchdown.
As for Deebo, his targets have been somewhat varied-- 3, 7, 4 through his first three weeks. In addition, in only one game did he actually reach 10.5 fantasy points. It seems that Jimmy G will likely look Deebo's way a few times on Monday night but as long as he stays out of the end zone, the Browns Defense should be able to keep him in check for under 10.5 fantasy points.
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Pick 3: Rapid Fire (2/3)
Recommended Prop Pick
Baker Mayfield (+1.5) passing yards, Odell Beckham Jr (+1.5), and Matt Breida (+39.5) rushing yards
These rapid fire 2-for-3 contest to make 1.8x your buy-in are an excellent way to grind out a profit-- doing one of these for as many games as possible will likely result in some sort of profit over the course of the season.
As mentioned above, I think Baker will look to move the ball through the air throughout the game and Garoppolo will be more of a game manager-- with Bakers' big play ability, I really like him out producing Jimmy G through the air. Baker has been looking OBJ's way numerous times every game this season and there is no reason to believe that anything will change this week. I actually think that Kittle will have a really productive week but having a +1.5 buffer is huge-- with someone like OBJ who has a 10+ reception ceiling, it would be silly not to take him as a 1.5 reception underdog. This Chubb and Breida prop is certainly the hardest of the three to figure out.
Chubb has been the featured back this season for the Browns, and has not disappointed. However, Breida has shown some signs of being a really solid back and has shown the ability to rush for 100+ yards. Chubb will likely run the ball around 20 times and Breida around 15 times-- the question then becomes if Chubb will be able to make up those 39.5 yards over those five additional rushes. In my opinion, 39.5 yards is just too much to bet against-- Chubb has been really good (specifically last week) but Breida has been good enough to produce some significant yardage.
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