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Corey Johnson's NFL DFS prop picks for the Chiefs vs. Chargers Monday Night Football contests. Use these Week 11 recommendations to win on Monkey Knife Fight.
Week 11 Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. The game will be played in LA, has an implied total of 52.5 points, and a spread of around four points favoring the Chiefs. Both offenses offer really some exciting plays on Monkey Knife Fight!
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Pick 1: Over/Under Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Travis Kelce OVER 16.5 Fantasy Points and Melvin Gordon OVER 14.5 Fantasy Points
In general, both the Chiefs and Chargers have solid pass defenses but have been struggling with run stop this season. With that being said, attacking overs on running backs will likely be a smart move for MNF on MKF. Gordon has been in somewhat of a timeshare with Ekeler since returning from injury but has seen 20+ touches in each of the last two games. The Chiefs have allowed nearly 150 rushing yards per game this season and with the expected 20 touches, Gordon should be able to surpass 14.5 fantasy points. In addition, Gordon has seen a few targets per game. Just two or three receptions in the PPR format that MKF offers can be really important points.
As for Kelce against the solid Chargers pass defense, 16.5 fantasy points is just too low to not take the over. Kelce is an elite pass-catcher and one of Mahomes favorite targets. In the PPR format, he will only need to catch seven to eight balls to have an excellent chance of getting to 16.5 fantasy points. Kelce has seen at least 7 targets in every game this season, including numerous red zone targets.
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Pick 2: Rapid Fire (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Philip Rivers More Passing Yards (+36.5) and Keenan Allen More Receptions (-0.5)
As mentioned in the intro, the Chiefs are four point favorites even though they are the away team. With that being said, there is a good chance that the Chiefs will be ahead in this game and they may resort to the run game more often that normal. Rivers hasn't been excellent this season but with a 36.5 yard buffer and a positive game flow for passing yards, outlasting Mahomes should happen more often than not.
To add on to that previous section, the positive passing game flow for the Chargers should also benefit Allen. Allen has seen double digit targets in five of 10 games this season, including 15 and 17 target games. Hill has had some impressive games since he has returned from injury but has been more inconsistent than Allen. With all that being said, Allen at just -0.5 receptions is the better of the two options.
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Pick 3: Over/Under (4/4)
Recommended Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 339.5 Passing Yards, Philip Rivers OVER 303.5 Passing Yards, Tyreek Hill UNDER 93.5 Receiving Yards, and Keenan Allen OVER 6.5 Receptions
Lets have some fun and try to take advantage of getting those first two prop bets right by using this prop bet which is offering a 10x payout! All four of these players have been mentioned so I won't repeat any of that stuff here. However, I do want to mention that the under 93.5 receiving yards for Hill is certainly the hardest to predict. I am fairly confident in the fact that Allen will have more receptions than Hill but even with three or four catches, Tyreek has the ability to break a couple big plays to surpass that 93.5 yards mark. However, I settled with the under because he will be facing cornerback Casey Hayward the majority of the game. Hayward has only allowed over 75 yards receiving once this season.
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