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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Seahawks vs Washington showdown slate. His Week 12 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 12 has been profitable so far. I personally had a decent day yesterday, but I hope to end the week in profit tonight in what should be an exciting matchup as the Seahawks (3-7) head to the nation's capital to take on Washington (4-6). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 29th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Taylor Heinicke ($14,700 DK, $14,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,390 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 19.4% (13th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 16.2% (25th)
While I do like Russell Wilson as well as Heinicke tonight, I'm simply mentioning Heinicke here because he's $1,800 cheaper on DK and $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel. This looks to be a shootout-type of game, as both defenses rank in the bottom third of the league in DVOA. However, Seattle is much better against the run (-14.4% DVOA, 9th in the NFL), than they are against the pass. We can use this to deduce that Washington will be putting the ball in the air.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Terry McLaurin, Russell Wilson
Tyler Lockett ($15,300 DK, $12,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 71 targets, 47 receptions, 717 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 26.39% target rate, 10.71% red-zone target rate, five end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'WR2': 45.5% (31st)
- Individual Matchup (vs William Jackson III): 13% targets per route, 56% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route
This game has a ton of receiver talent, and all are great options, but I feel like Lockett has the best matchup of any receiver in this game. Lockett should move in and out of the slot and will likely line up across Landon Collins as well and should make life miserable for Washington's defense. I'll have shares of DK Metcalf in the captain/MVP spots too, but I just prefer Lockett more.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Russell Wilson, Taylor Heinicke
Other Captains: Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Russell Wilson ($11,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 1,564 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 22% (12th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 28.1% (30th)
I'm personally treading with caution tonight with Wilson, as he's looked rough since coming back from injury. Since returning in week 10, he's logged just 368 passing yards without throwing a touchdown pass and throwing two interceptions. To be fair, he did have to face Green Bay and Arizona's defenses, who are among the toughest in the league. Wilson's matchup "luck" turns the corner tonight against Washington, and similar to Heinicke, it appears that Seattle will have to move the ball through the air.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Taylor Heinicke
Terry McLaurin ($10,600 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 91 targets, 54 receptions, 735 yards, five touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 28.09% target rate, 24.24% red-zone target rate, 11 end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'WR1': -20.8% (6th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Blessuan Austin): 11% target per route covered, 100% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.
Sometimes consolidation in offenses is a curse rather than a blessing in these showdown slates, and that would be the case tonight. There's a bunch of high-priced "studs" on the slate, and picking and choosing the right ones will be the key to taking home the rake rather than paying it. I like McLaurin here assuming he lines up across Blessuan Austin for most of the night, which will be a long night for the third-year corner.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Taylor Heinicke, Russell Wilson
Other Flex Plays: Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas
NFL DFS Value Plays
Joey Slye ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 18 field goals attempted, 16 field goals made, 14/17 PAT
We're going to need value tonight with all of the high-priced options on the slate, so why not go with a kicker. In yesterday's article, I mentioned Justin Tucker, who paid off last night knocking down three field goals and an extra point, good enough for 13 points. I'll go back to this well tonight with Slye, who's averaging nine fantasy points per game this season.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson
Freddie Swain ($2,200 DK, $5,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 28 targets, 16 receptions, 169 yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 10.41% target rate, 14.29% red-zone target rate, three end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other WR': 9.5% (20th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Landon Collins): 14% target per route, 76% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route.
More of a long shot play here, as Swain hasn't had a catch since week seven. He's had just four targets since then, but I will attribute at least some of that to Russell Wilson's struggles in recent weeks. He still maintains over a 10% target rate though, and assuming he's lining up in the slot when he's on the field, he can take advantage of the matchup against Landon Collins. He's cheap enough to be used as a punt play on both sites, and that's how I'll be using him tonight.
Recommendation: GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Russell Wilson, Taylor Heinicke
Other Value Plays: Jason Myers, Logan Thomas (if playing)
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
I'll be mixing and matchup my ownership amongst both passing offenses, as I feel like the most likely game script will be a pass-heavy shootout. I will be hedging with the running backs (Gibson, McKissic, Collins, etc.). I particularly favor the Washington running backs, especially in the passing game. Seattle is 31st against RBs in the passing game with a DVOA of 51.3%. McKissic is too expensive on DraftKings for me to be overweight on him, but at $9,500 on FD, I'll have a decent amount. Other than that, this slate is rather straightforward.
Have a good week everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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