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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Saints vs Seahawks showdown slate. His Week 7 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 7 has been profitable so far. I've been on quite a roll lately, having another solid day yesterday, once again sweeping the day in cash across the four major slates. Tonight we head to Seattle as the Saints (3-2) take on the Seahawks (2-4). It looks like we'll have some weather issues again tonight, with a 95% or higher chance of rain throughout the game, so that's something we'll have to navigate. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on October 25th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
NFL DFS Captain Plays
Alvin Kamara ($19,200 DK, $16,000 FD)
Despite Alvin Kamara being the highest-priced player (on DraftKings), and likely the highest-owned player, he's still my favorite captain/MVP for the night. The price and (probably) ownership will be for good reason. Kamara hasn't had the best start to the year but has still been pretty good. He's run for 368 yards and four touchdowns on 94 attempts and has caught 15 of 22 targets for 113 yards and three touchdowns. Season-long Kamara owners (like myself) would like to see those targets go up, and tonight could be the night we start going in that direction. Seattle has a 37% DVOA against running backs in the passing game, which ranks 28th in the league. In what will likely be a soaked game, we can reasonably expect a ton of touches targets for Kamara. He'll likely be my highest owned captain/MVP by a wide margin.
Tyler Lockett ($13,500 DK, $11,500 FD)
It's always fun trying to choose between Lockett and DK Metcalf. Even with Geno Smith under center, he hasn't been partial to either one in particular, with both WRs seeing seven targets last Sunday against Pittsburgh. While Metcalf was the more productive of the two, Lockett is the cheaper of the two. While Metcalf should see a lot of Marcus Lattimore tonight, Lockett will be lined up against Paulson Adebo, who allows 1.53 yards per route covered and 0.34 fantasy points per route.
Other Captains: Alex Collins, Saints D/ST (GPP ONLY)
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Jameis Winston ($11,800 DK, $16,500 FD)
Winston, or "LASIK Jame-o" as I've been calling him since he got LASIK surgery last offseason, has been pretty darn good since replacing the future hall of fame quarterback Drew Brees. He's thrown for 892 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions through the first five games. Despite the weather, he draws a solid matchup tonight against Seattle, who comes into this one with a 21.4% DVOA against the pass, which ranks 24th in the league. I won't be surprised if he unloads deep balls to guys like Marquez Callaway and Kenny Stills, but I do think he'll be dumping the ball off to Alvin Kamara, making them a solid 1-2 punch to attack this slate with.
Alex Collins ($7,400 DK, $12,000 FD)
If the weather was clear and Russell Wilson was healthy, I wouldn't even consider Collins on this slate. However, the weather will likely be poor and Wilson is injured, which opens up a valuable spot to get Collins in our lineups. He was great last week, running for 101 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. The Saints are staunch against the run, though, with a DVOA of -31.4% which ranks second in the league. I think Collins will be force-fed tonight, and his ownership will likely be high enough that if he does turn out a decent game, you may be left in the dust if you fade him.
Other Flex Plays: D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith
NFL DFS Value Plays
Saints D/ST ($5,800 DK)
New Orleans has been solid defensively this season, coming into this one with a -13% defensive DVOA, which ranks third in the league. Their biggest issue has been getting to the quarterback, as they only have a 4.3% sack rate on the season. This should positively regress though, especially against Seattle who has a 9.2% adjusted sack rate. This play is rather simple, despite the offensive firepower at the wide receiver position, it's still Geno Smith at quarterback in a game that will likely be wet for the entire duration. Expect a sloppy football game from Geno and the Saints taking full advantage.
Kenny Stills ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
I recommend Stills as I think he's the best true "punt" play on this slate. He has just three receptions for 34 yards on the year, but he did manage to see five targets against Washington in week five. It's no surprise to anyone that Seattle's secondary is poor once again this season, and if Stills can get behind them just once he could break the slate. He'll likely be lined up against Sidney Jones for the majority of the night, who allows 2.61 yards per route covered and 0.5 fantasy points per route. If the weather wasn't an issue, this would be a matchup made in heaven, but considering his price it's still a darn good one.
Other Value Plays: DeeJay Dallas, Brian Johnson
Overall Slate Note
This slate is ugly. I mean really ugly. We saw how brutal Seattle's game with the Steelers was last week, and we could be looking at more of the same tonight. Kamara is by far the top option here, and he should be in 100% of your lineups. It's important to have a good share of both running backs in a game like this, as Jonathan Taylor and Elijah Mitchell showed us last night. I have the most confidence in a Kamara-Winston-Saints D/ST stack. I'd be pickier with the passing offenses, stacking Jameis and Geno with at least two of their pass catchers (Kamara counting as a pass-catcher for New Orleans). My recommendation would to be play light on this slate and get ready for Thursday.
Have a good Monday everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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