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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Rams vs Cardinals showdown slate. His Week 14 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 14 has been profitable so far. I personally had gone light yesterday, as I thought that the slates were kind of wonky. I hope to end the week with a big win tonight in what should be an exciting divisional matchup as the Rams (8-4) head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals (10-2). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on December 13th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
NFL DFS Captain Plays
Kyler Murray ($16,800 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,399 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 59 rushes, 206 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 38.4% (2nd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.3% (11th)
We start off the slate with Kyler Murray. Murray had an efficient game after returning from his three-game absence, going 11-15 with two touchdown passes, as well as logging two scores on the ground. He'll get a tougher matchup tonight, but in a big prime-time game at home, I expect Kyler to come out in full force. His rushing ability creates a solid floor, but if he decides to air the ball out, his ceiling is too hard to ignore at the 1.5x spot. The Rams have a funnel that favors the Cardinals passing game slightly, so I'll be heavier on the Arizona passing attack than the running attack in this one,
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: De'Andre Hopkins, AJ Green, Cooper Kupp
Sony Michel ($10,800 DK, $12,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 103 rushes, 426 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 17 targets, 14 receptions, 70 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 35.64% attempt rate, 35.64% red-zone attempt rate, 33.33% attempt rate within the 5yd line.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -3.9% (11th)
- Opposing Defensive Rush DVOA: -10.5% (15th)
On the other side of the matchup, we have Sony Michel. Michel filled in nicely for Darrell Henderson Jr. last week, logging 129 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. With Henderson now on the COVID list, Michel should see another full workload tonight. I prefer the Rams passing game in this one, but Michel is cheap enough to give you a solid value option at the 1.5x spot if you go that route. It's also worth noting that the Arizona defense funnel slightly favors the Rams running attack, so if McVay goes that route, Michel should have no problems hitting value.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Matt Gay, Kyler Murray
Other Captains: Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Christian Kirk
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Matthew Stafford ($10,400 DK, $15,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,611 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, nine interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 31.8% (7th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -15.3% (3rd)
Matthew Stafford has played excellent since the bye, throwing for 597 passing yards and six touchdowns in two games. Despite the loss of Robert Woods, Stafford and the Rams offense has made do with the addition of O'Dell Beckham Jr. I'm expecting this one to be pretty high-scoring, so while I may have quite a bit of Sony Michel, I'll certainly have plenty of the Rams' passing offense.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Kyler Murray
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,600 DK, $12,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 51 targets, 37 receptions, 518 yards, eight touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 19.62% target rate, 27.5% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jalen Ramsey): 15% target per route covered, 68% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered.
Hopkins only saw two targets in his return last week, catching both for 32 yards and a touchdown. He now gets a matchup with familiar foe Jalen Ramsey, a matchup in which he caught four of seven targets for 67 yards. It's worth noting how Hopkins and Murray really started to click before they both got injured. In the three-week span between weeks 6-8, Hopkins caught 12 of 15 targets for 195 yards and four touchdowns. I fully expect Hopkins and Ramsey to go at it tonight, and if nothing else, it should be some great entertainment.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
Other Flex Plays: Van Jefferson Jr., O'Dell Beckham Jr., James Conner
NFL DFS Value Plays
Matt Gay ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 24 field goals attempted, 23 field goals made, 35/36 PAT.
Kickers, kickers, kickers. Normally I'd suggest the kicker I believe has the higher floor due to his team scoring more points, but I think this game is so close to a toss-up that I'm not sure. However, I slightly favor Gay here as he's been darn near automatic on the season, taking care of business whenever he gets the nod. I'll have a decent share of both kickers tonight, but Prater is too inconsistent, so I'll play it safe here.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel
Christian Kirk ($5,600 DK, $10,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 64 targets, 50 receptions, 632 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 17.83% target rate, 12.5% red-zone target rate, seven end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Dont'e Deayon): 17% target per route covered, 65% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered.
Probably the most popular "cheap" option on DraftKings tonight, I find Kirk's price a bit silly. For someone that has a target rate over 15% and seven end zone targets to be under $6,000 kind of blows my mind. He only saw three targets last week, but he'll look to bounce back this week in a solid matchup against Dont'e Deayon. He's certainly a boom-or-bust play, but he's a cheap enough option that I'm confident in playing him at this price.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Kyler Murray, Sony Michel, Matthew Stafford
Other Value Plays: Tyler Higbee, A.J. Green, Chase Edmonds
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
I'm fully expecting a shootout in this one. I'll be making a bunch of 3-3 and 4-2 lineups, but I'll be splitting them rather even by team. I don't think either team has a clear and obvious advantage on paper, so I'll be making my lineups accordingly. The most important aspect of this matchup will be the availability of (my former little league teammate, true story) Chase Edmonds, and how much impact he has on the game. I don't mind playing Edmonds if he ends up being ruled in, but it does affect how willing I'd be to play James Conner. Regardless, I think it's important to split ownership up between both teams and attack this one from all angles.
Have a good week everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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