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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Rams vs 49ers showdown slate. His Week 10 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 10 has been profitable so far. I personally had a great day in cash yesterday, cleaning the house on all four of the major slates. I hope to carry this momentum into tonight in what should be an exciting matchup as the Rams (7-2) try to bounce back from last week's performance as they head to San Francisco for another prime-time matchup against the 49ers (3-5). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 15th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Matthew Stafford ($16,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,771 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, six interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 44.8% (3rd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 19.1% (25th)
Luckily we get a slight discount on Stafford tonight, with Cooper Kupp being the highest-priced player on DraftKings. It's unfortunate that the Rams lost Robert Woods this week, but they made a solid addition in Odell Beckham Jr. I don't think OBJ makes a massive difference in this game tonight, but with the matchup being what it is I think it's tough to fade Stafford. He's an absolute must in optimal lineups on FD, and I'll have a decent percentage of him on DK.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Deebo Samuel
George Kittle ($11,700 DK, $10,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 36 targets, 25 receptions, 328 yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 92.42% target rate, 21.3% target rate, 6.25% red-zone target rate, 2 end-zone targets
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -21.4% (8th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Ernest Jones): 12% target per route, 90% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route.
It's been an injury-ridden year for Kittle, but boy did he come back last week with a vengeance. After he missed four consecutive weeks, he logged six receptions on eight targets for 101 yards and a touchdown against Arizona last Sunday. Out of all the Niners' pass-catchers, Kittle has the best matchup of the week. He's shown recent success against the Rams, catching 20 of 26 targets for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games against them.
Recommendation: Cash (DK), GPP (FD)
Best Correlations: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
Other Captains: Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 1,754 passing yards, eight touchdowns, five interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26% (8th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -6.7% (5th)
This is more of a FanDuel play for me, as I really don't think Jimmy G will be optimal on DraftKings tonight. I feel like the 49ers' 26% pass DVOA is a bit misleading, considering the 49ers really try to establish and use the run to move down the field. The matchup isn't particularly great either, but it's worth noting that Garoppolo threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams last October. Overall though, I'd rather spread my ownership around the 49ers pass catchers and use the extra salary elsewhere on DraftKings.
Recommendation: Cash (FD), GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp
Elijah Mitchell ($6,400 DK, $11,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 89 attempts, 469 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, nine targets, nine receptions, 73 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 64.82% snap rate, 57.42% attempt rate, 47.62% red-zone attempt rate, 25% attempt rate withing the 5yd line.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 3.5% (3rd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13.5% (14th)
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (receiving): -4.1% (18th)
I'm a bit confused as to why Mitchell is so cheap on DraftKings, but we'll take it nonetheless. He showed his versatility last week, catching five of five targets for 43 yards, but this week I would have to assume Kyle Shanahan's game plan will be to use Mitchell and the running game to control the clock and keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands. We could get dumped if the game becomes too out of hand too quickly, but the upside is certainly worth the risk.
Recommendation: Cash (DK, FD), GPP (CPT, DK)
Best Correlations: Matthew Stafford, George Kittle, Robbie Gould
Other Flex Plays: Deebo Samuel, Tyler Higbee, O'dell Beckham Jr.,
NFL DFS Value Plays
Van Jefferson Jr. ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 46 targets, 27 receptions, 433 yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 78.19% snap rate, 14.33% target rate, 11.94% red-zone target rate, five end-zone targets.
- Defensive DVOA vs 'Other WR': 10.3% (25th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Emmanuel Moseley): 19% target per route, 54% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route.
I understand why Jefferson is a bit cheaper, as the news about Robert Woods's ACL injury didn't come out until Friday. Again, we'll take the value we can get on this slate, especially because I truly don't believe that OBJ will have a huge factor in this game. Robert Woods took up 21.5% of the target share, so it's not crazy to assume guys like Jefferson and Higbee will have some positive regression in the target department. While his matchup is average, it shouldn't be hard for Jefferson to hit value tonight, and he's a must-play in cash lineups on DK.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo
Rams D/ST ($4,600 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 28 sacks, 12 interceptions, two fumble recoveries.
- Defensive DVOA: -9.4% (9th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: 13.1% (7th)
I consider this more of a GPP play tonight, as I'm about 50/50 on which way this game could go. You really never know what you're going to get from San Francisco's offense, but I do think there's a very real chance that Jimmy is a dud tonight and the Rams absolutely dominate. They've been ball-hawking all season and should get some decent pressure on Garoppolo and force him to make mistakes. It's also worth that in the last two games against the Rams they've allowed 23 and 24 points.
Recommendation: GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Darrell Henderson Jr., Matthew Stafford, Robbie Gould
Other Value Plays: Robbie Gould, Matt Gay
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
I think this is a super interesting, yet unpredictable matchup. I think the Rams snap their four-game losing streak against San Francisco, but I also think that this should be a game that could go down the wire. All outcomes feel possible, so I'll be spreading my lineups out accordingly. Unlike last night, though, I do think this game can be a "cash" slate as well, as both offenses seem rather consolidated. I know it's somewhat "going against the grain" to play cash games in a showdown slate, but I've found myself having success over the last few years.
Have a good week everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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