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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Raiders vs Chargers showdown slate. His Week 4 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday RotoBallers! I hope your Week Four has been profitable so far. I had a solid day myself yesterday but didn't have the best Sunday Night Football slate, so I'm looking to get that back tonight. We have an interesting AFC West Showdown tonight between the Chargers and Raiders, and I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. Bookmakers have these teams about even, with LA getting the home-field three-point advantage. The total sits at 51.5, so it's most likely we'll be seeing ownership on both sides of the ball. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on October 4th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Justin Herbert ($16,800 DK, $15,500 FD)
Justin Herbert is one of the promisingly talented young quarterbacks in the league today. Through three games, he's thrown for 956 yards, six touchdowns to three interceptions. Four of those touchdowns came against the Chiefs last Sunday, a masterclass of a performance and a win few expected. While the Chiefs' defense is fairly lackluster, Las Vegas comes in with a defensive pass DVOA of -0.6%. It'll be a tougher matchup than he had last week, but I don't see him having any issues putting points on the board, especially after the apparent rapport he's created with Mike Williams so far this season.
Darren Waller ($13,800 DK, $13,000 FD)
After seeing 19 targets in week one, Waller had relatively cooled down a bit. He's caught ten passes on 14 targets for 119 yards in the last two games but hasn't found the end zone. This will be the night that changes that. He has the best matchup of the night, as the Chargers have a DVOA of 43.2% in the passing game against tight ends, which is among the worst in the league. He saw 22 targets in two games against the Chargers last year, hauling in 14 catches for 172 yards and two scores. He's primed to have a big night, and I'll be captaining him quite a few of my lineups.
Other Captains: Derek Carr, Mike Williams
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Derek Carr ($10,800 DK, $16,000 FD)
Derek Carr comes into this one 3-0 while lighting up the field with 1203 yards, six scores, and just two interceptions. He's put up an insane 26.8 DK and 23.81 FD points per game thus far. He gets a solid draw against the Chargers' defense, which comes into this one with a -0.4% DVOA against the pass. In a game script that looks like a high-scoring shootout, I'll have some captain shares of him, but I'm looking at him mostly as a flex to correlate with Darren Waller at captain or a Herbert/Chargers stack as a "run-back" play.
Keenan Allen ($8,800 DK, $12,500 FD)
It appears we may have seen Mike Williams take the leading receiver spot for LA, but that doesn't take away anything from Allen. He's caught 21 of his 33 targets for 258 yards and a touchdown through three weeks. He'll always be a target matching as long as he's in there, and tonight should be no different. He's cheaper than Williams on both sites tonight and has the better matchup as he'll be lined up against Nate Hobbs in the slot. The Raiders have been getting solid pressure on quarterbacks so expect Keenan Allen, as well as Austin Ekeler, to be a safety net for Herbert.
Other Flex Plays: Austin Ekeler, Peyton Barber (if Jacobs is ruled OUT)
NFL DFS Value Plays
Hunter Renfrow ($5,800 DK, $9,500 FD)
Maybe it's because I follow a decent amount of Raiders fans on Twitter, but I feel like I've seen the term "third and Renfrow" a million times through these first three weeks. For good reason, too, as he's been moving the chains for them not just on third down, but on all downs. He's caught 16 of his 22 targets, racking up 204 yards and a touchdown. With all the high-priced options on this slate, picking the right value guy will be key to winning the slate. I'll put my faith in a guy who's averaging over seven targets a game at a pretty cheap price.
Kenyan Drake ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD)
While I mentioned Peyton Barber is a solid flex option if Jacobs is ruled out, I think Kenyan Drake is a solid option regardless of Jacobs's status. Drake has been the primary third-down back for Vegas this season. He's only rushed 21 times for 44 yards in the first three weeks, but he's been a nice option in the passing game, racking up 13 receptions on 17 targets for 138 yards. This includes a five reception 59-yard game when Jacobs was in. I wouldn't play him and Barber/Jacobs together under any circumstance, and if Jacobs is playing I'll likely be fading both him and Barber. However, I like Drake regardless of circumstance, mostly on DraftKings due to the PPR scoring.
Dylan Carlson ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD)
I'll start with this, I absolutely hate playing kickers in showdowns. I didn't play any kickers last night, which killed me as Ryan Succop knocked down four of five field goals including a long of 48 yards. I will play shares of Daniel Carlson tonight, who I think is one of the best two kickers in football. He's knocked down all nine of his field-goal attempts this season, including both of his 50+ yard attempts. He did miss an extra point last week but is 7-8 on them as well. The Chargers have allowed opponents to kick seven field goals this season, making six of them. Considering I need him to outscore Keenan Allen by 27 points tonight in one of my home leagues, I'll be rooting for him.
Other Value Plays: Jared Cook, Foster Moreau
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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