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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Patriots vs Bills showdown slate. His Week 13 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 13 has been profitable so far. I personally had a decent day yesterday, but I hope to end the week with a huge win tonight in what should be an exciting matchup as the Patriots (8-4) head to Buffalo to take on the Bills (7-4). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on December 6th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Josh Allen ($16,800 DK, $17,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,071 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 18.4% (16th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -20.3% (2nd)
I saw a tweet earlier this week (I can't remember who it was from, my apologies) that posted Josh Allen's numbers from last year compared to this year. His numbers this season have been roughly just as good as his monster stats from last year, and he'll look to continue that trend tonight with first place in the AFC East on the line. It won't be easy, of course, with the Patriots coming in second-best in the NFL at DVOA against the pass. However, Allen is both the best and safest option at captain/MVP on this slate, and will likely be the highest-owned.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Mac Jones
Jakobi Meyers ($10,800 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 90 targets, 59 receptions, 620 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 23.56% target rate, 14.81% red-zone target rate, two end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Taron Johnson): 14% target per route, 53% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route.
The Patriots' offense has seen a number of players step up for them this season. However, Meyers leads the entire skill position group in targets. While he doesn't get the red-zone targets we'd like to see from a "WR1" in this spot, his price is cheap enough on both sites to make him a valuable play, whether that's in the captain/MVP or the flex spot. I don't know how much offensive production we'll see tonight, so I'll be focused on looking at volume for most of the guys I roster.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Mac Jones, Josh Allen
Other Captains: Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Mac Jones ($10,000 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,850 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 22.6% (11th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -24.9% (1st)
While I don't pay too much attention to national sports media, I'd have to assume they're loving Mac Jones. Rightfully so, the fact that the Patriots are playing a Week 13 game with a chance to solidify themselves atop the AFC East through their bye week next week is incredible. It won't come easy, considering the Bills have the best defensive DVOA against the pass this season. However, the Bills' defense just lost Tre'Davious White, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond against Mac and the Patriots tonight.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Josh Allen
Cole Beasley ($7,800 DK, $10,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 79 targets, 62 receptions, 530 yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 19.8% target rate, 13.43% red-zone target rate, three end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Myles Bryant): 13% target per route covered, 86% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered.
Beasley's targets have fluctuated throughout the season, but he's seen at least five in each of the last two weeks and in four of the last five. He has the best matchup of any wide receiver from either side tonight, and I hope he's able to take advantage of it. One of the many things that Bill Belicheck does well is taking an offense's top option away from them, so with Belicheck scheming against Stefon Diggs, look for Beasley to lock up some targets and receptions as a safety blanket for Josh Allen.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Mac Jones
Other Flex Plays: Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne
NFL DFS Value Plays
Tyler Bass ($4,400 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 23 field goals attempted, 20 field goals made, 34/34 PAT.
Kickers are optimal, next. Just kidding, but not really. We saw it again last night with Harrison Butker racking up 13 points in Kansas City's win over the Broncos on SNF. This one very well could become a defensive battle with points difficult to come by, so I really like both kickers here. I'll lean with Bass though because I think that Josh Allen and the Bills' offense could move the ball a bit easier than New England, but I could see the Patriots defense tightening up on their side of the field and forcing Bass to knock down a couple of deep field goals.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary ($4,600 DK, $8,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 98 attempts, 459 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 33 targets, 26 receptions, 118 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 34.39% attempt rate, 21.31% red-zone attempt rate, 16.67% attempt rate within the five, 8.27% target rate, 4.48% red-zone target rate.
- Offense Rushing DVOA: -8.3% (19th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -14.7% (10th)
With Zack Moss being a healthy scratch last week, it looks like the Bills will be moving forward this season with Devin Singletary as the lead back. I can't say that with 100% confidence due to the emergence of Matt Breida, but it appears that it's at worst a 50/50 split and the volume still leans towards Singletary. This benefits us on DraftKings, where he's $2,000 cheaper than Breida. I'll make sure to have shares of both, but I'll certainly have more Singletary on DraftKings, whereas it'll be roughly a 50/50 split for me on FanDuel.
Recommendation: GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tyler Bass
Other Value Plays: Hunter Henry, Bills D/ST, Matt Breida
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
This is likely the most difficult showdown slate this season, considering it's the top two defenses in terms of DVOA matching up against each other. I'll likely play a much smaller amount on this slate than usual, and mostly in max-entry GPPs. As I mentioned before, I'm looking for volume more than anything else in this matchup, and work around there. I wouldn't play both Singletary and Breida in the same lineup, and I won't have any more than two pass-catchers from either team in my lineups. Buckle up, friends, this should be an exciting game, but an ugly one from a DFS perspective.
Have a good week everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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