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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! What a weekend of playoff football it's been. We have a great game to cap off Wild Card weekend tonight as the Cardinals (11-6) head to the City of Angels to take on their divisional rival, the Rams (12-5). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.Â
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on January 17th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like in our Premium Slack Chat Rooms. Let's make some coin tonight gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Zach Ertz ($9,300 DK, $9,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 112 targets, 74 receptions, 763 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Travin Howard): 19% target rate, 67% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.
I'll start off the slate with Zach Ertz. Ertz has been a force in the Cardinals offense in the absence of De'Andre Hopkins, and that should continue tonight, with him being the safety blanket to help Kyler deal with LA's pass rush. He caught five of seven targets for 42 yards back in Week 14 but has caught at least six passes in each game since. Tight ends have been eating all weekend, and I wouldn't expect that to change tonight.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford
Kyler Murray ($16,800 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,787 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 423 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.7% (10th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1% (sixth)
Kyler has definitely tapered off after a scorching hot start to 2021. He's been playing better of late, though, including a big game (fantasy-wise) against the Rams back in Week 14. I choose Kyler over Stafford here because of his rushing floor, and the Cardinals are certainly going to need him to use his legs to get down the field tonight. It'll be his playoff debut, and I feel this one being a shootout so either way, I'm finding a way to jam both quarterbacks in here.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Zach Ertz, Christian Kirk, Matthew Stafford
Other Captains: Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, James Conner
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Matthew Stafford ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 4,886 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, 17 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.6% (seventh)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -2.3% (fifth)
On the other side of the field, we have Matthew Stafford. It's good to see Stafford in the playoffs, his first appearance since 2016. Stafford tore Arizona up back in Week 14, completing 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards and three touchdowns. He's seemed to have developed a rapport with Odell Beckham Jr., making that Rams passing attack that much more dangerous. As I mentioned with Kyler, I can't give him the nod as my favorite captain, but in this shootout scenario, I'll have some shares of him there as well.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Kyler Murray
Cooper Kupp ($13,000 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 191 targets, 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Antonio Hamilton): 16% target rate, 65% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered.
Kupp has been nothing short of incredible this year, falling just short of both the single-season receptions and receiving yards records. Nevertheless, it's impossible to think that Kupp will stop now. He shredded the Cardinals back in Week 14, catching 13 of 15 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. While Hamilton's catch rate against is solid, he's susceptible to allowing big plays, which shows in the 0.28 fantasy points per route covered. I think Kupp has himself a night tonight and finds the end zone twice.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray
Other Flex Plays: Sony Michel, Christian Kirk, Odell Beckham Jr.
NFL DFS Value Plays
Matt Gay ($4,200 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 34 field goals attempted, 32 field goals made, 48/49 XP.
Kickers are optimal: Playoff Edition. Gay has been as good as it gets this season, and they're going to need him now that they're in the dance. He knocked down five of six field-goal attempts in two games this season against Arizona, including a 55-yard banger back in Week 14. While I think this one ends up being a shootout, there should be some opportunities for field goals, so I really like Gay in this spot.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Sony Michel, Kyler Murray
Van Jefferson ($5,200 DK, $8,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, 37 sacks, two defensive touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Marco Wilson): 16% target rate, 68% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered.
While I mentioned earlier how Stafford and OBJ have found themselves a solid rapport, I don't want to act like Stafford doesn't have that same rapport with Jefferson. Jefferson is way too cheap, and while I believe he should see at least five targets tonight, at worst he's a boom-or-bust play. He boomed back in Week 14, catching a 52-yard touchdown. Expect him to make his dad proud (and probably upset as well), on the Cardinals sideline as he gets behind the defense once again for a deep score.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray
Other Value Plays: Rondale Moore, Matt Prater
Happy playoffs everyone, and best of luck tonight!
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