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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Bears vs Steelers showdown slate. His Week 9 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 9 has been profitable so far. I've been on quite a roll lately, having another solid day yesterday, cashing three of the four major slates, and just missing out on the afternoon-only slate. Tonight we have a brisk game between two low-scoring teams, as the Bears (3-5) head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (4-3). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 8th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Najee Harris ($18,600 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 128 carries, 479 yards, five touchdowns, 49 targets, 37 receptions, 273 yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 85.99% snap rate, 78.53% attempt rate, 75% red zone attempt rate, 75% $EZ attempt rate, 18.28% target rate, 31.25% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -13.1% (22nd)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -4.5% (24th)
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): -5.7% (16th)
Harris is the highest-priced player on the slate, but for good reason. He's putting up great numbers and is likely well on his way to the Offensive ROY award. Tonight will just be another spoke on the wheel that is his rookie campaign, and I'll be shocked if he isn't the highest-scoring player on the slate.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Steelers D/ST, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney
Diontae Johnson ($16,800 DK, $13,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 63 targets, 40 receptions, 474 yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 88.92% snap rate, 30% target rate, 26.09% red-zone target rate, 2 $EZ targets
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 12.3% (19th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.2% (13th)
- Opposing DVOA vs #1 WR: 38.9% (32nd)
- Individual Matchup (vs Jaylon Johnson): 15% target per route, 51% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route.
A bit of a double-dip here with the Steelers' offense, but in what projects to be an ugly one-sided game, I favor the Steelers' offense due to both of the high-floor and high-ceiling potential. I won't be 100% on Pittsburgh's offense of course, but I really like the consolidation in Pittsburgh's offense. These two are likely going to touch the ball or be targeted on every other play.
Recommendation: Cash (DK), GPP (FD)
Best Correlations: Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Fields
Other Captains: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Justin Fields ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 991 passing yards, three touchdowns, seven interceptions, 44 attempts, 234 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: -21.4% (32nd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.9% (15th)
The optics aren't pretty on this one, but nothing is pretty about this football game. While Fields looked great last week with both his arm and his legs, he's been an up and down player this season. I can't anticipate a ceiling game from him, but with potential garbage time combined with his rushing floor, he should be able to be a top scorer on this slate. He's not a bad GPP captain/MVP either. If you saw how Week 9 has gone so far, it's completely possible Fields has that ceiling game and the Bears are feeling good about their potential franchise quarterback.
Recommendation: Cash (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Najee Harris, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller
Ben Roethlisberger ($10,600 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 1,781 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 12.3% (19th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.2% (13th)
While I'm not a Steelers fan, being from Pennsylvania it makes me angry for my Steelers fan buddies that Ben hasn't hung them up yet. He's a future HOF, but he's far past his prime. Regardless, I like him as a flex option tonight simply because we have slim pickings and we're going to need fantasy points where we can get them. I'll likely have Ben in about 50% of my lineups, but I likely won't captain him much, if at all.
Recommendation: Cash (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Najee Harris, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller
Other Flex Plays: Khalil Herbert, Allen Robinson, Chase Claypool
NFL DFS Value Plays
Steelers D/ST ($5,000 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 142 points allowed, two interceptions, four fumble recoveries, 19 sacks.
- Defensive DVOA: 0.8% (8th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: -20.6% (29th)
Generally speaking, this is a good offense going up against a poor defense. While crazier things have happened (I can name three from yesterday alone), the Steelers should have the Bears stalling out and keeping them under 20 points. We'll want them to step it up in the takeaway department though, and this could be a good game to do so.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Chris Boswell
Anthony Miller ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 11 targets, five receptions, 23 yards, one touchdown
- 2021 Data: 68.63% snap rate, 24.4% target rate, 1 red zone target, 1 $EZ target.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 12.3% (19th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.2% (13th)
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: -0.9% (17th)
- Individual Matchup: N/A
This is more of a value dart here, but we love a revenge game narrative. The former second-round pick spent three years in Chicago, before being traded to Houston this summer. He played two games for the Texans and was released earlier last month and was picked up by the Steelers following JuJu Smith-Schuster's injury. There's nothing fancy about this play, but Miller had 11 targets in two games in Houston. If he could bring something similar to the table tonight, he could be a slate-breaker.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Justin Fields, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris
Other Value Plays: Bears D/ST, Chris Boswell
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
Like most primetime games have been this year, this one should be ugly. I don't expect either offense to light the world on fire but after yesterday's slate of games, who knows anymore. I'm certainly higher on Pittsburgh "onslaught" builds here, but I'm not sure if you can consider scoring 20 points an "onslaught". Don't be afraid to play both defenses in some of your lineups tonight.
Have a good Monday everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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