May 25, 2017

Brad Leibfried shows how to use advanced stats to generate top DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo with RotoBaller's MLB Lineup Optimizer Tool. Part 3 of his strategy series.

As many people know, the days of looking at a baseball players batting average or a pitchers ERA as indicators of their performance are out the window. The stats of old have been replaced by several new advanced stats that show a true picture of how the player is actually performing.

For batters these stats are wOBA, wRC+ and ISO, while pitchers are focused on what their opponents numbers are for those stats as well at the opposing  teams strikeout rate or K%.

Today I'll take a look at using these advanced stats when generating optimal DFS lineups using our MLB Lineup Optimizer tool.

Fantasy Baseball: Advanced Stats

A quick intro to these stats:  wOBA (weighted on base average) measures a players offensive value in terms of what type of hits the player is accumulating, giving more weight to extra-base hits. A .400 wOBA is considered excellent while .320 is average.

wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) measures how many runs each player has created against the average player and includes park factors to minimize the relevance of a park such as Coors Field to numbers. A 160 wRC+ is considered elite, while 100 is the league average.

ISO (Isolated Power) is used to measure how much power a batter has, and lends more to how many extra-base hits a given player gets. It can show the differences between a player such as Joe Mauer and Eric Hosmer who may have similar batting averages, but ISO will show Hosmer has much better power and is more likely to have extra-base hits. The league average ISO is .140 while an excellent player will have an ISO around .250.

DFS Lineup Optimizer: Advanced Stats

How to use this within the Optimizer

To use the advanced stats you will need SHOW the advanced portion of the Optimizer. From there you can set any minimums you would like.

If you would like only players with an above average ISO you can set the limit to .150, and all players with a below average ISO will be taking out of the pool. The same goes for wOBA, which is shown above.

Another option is to set any one of the five factors to on as well. Park factors, where big shifts can be seen from positive in Coors Field to negative shifts at Dodger Stadium, along with the mention stats can be turned on to weight these higher than normal.

One thing to remember here is that players with high numbers tend to be higher priced, so simply turning all factors on and eliminating low wOBA or wRC+ players will not always produce the top team. Along with that, it is also to note that often times these players are strikeout prone and could have a lower floor than other players.

Advanced stats with Pitching

On the other side of the spectrum, when picking a pitcher(s) for your daily fantasy lineups, you may want to find pitchers who face a team with a low wOBA or ISO rate. By enabling these features you can unearth pitcher who may not have top-end talent, but have plus matchups that could be a great source of value.

If you are looking to find a pitcher with top end potential, enabling the opponent strikeout percentage (Opp K%) could be for you as it will help identify pitcher who face teams that are prone to strikeouts. For example, the Tampa Bay Rays have a well above team ISO of .170 which could push you away from opposing pitchers, but also note that they are last in baseball with a 27.2% strikeout rate. By turning on the Opp K%, the optimizer will prioritize teams with a higher strikeout rate which could lead to a big night for your daily fantasy lineup, but may add some risk.

The beauty of the optimizer is that you can choose to not use any of these, or choose them all depending on your preference and the projections will mold to your exact specifications!

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