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Hey everyone we are back with another Tuesday betting slate for MLB. Even though we have a full slate of games, I really focus on trying to find where I think some of the best opportunities are in the betting market and make my best guesses there. On many days it might be two or three picks as opposed to trying to have a take for every game out there. I am all about bankroll management and making smart decisions!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (Game 1)
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TOR -155
LAA: Chris Rodriguez| TOR: Steven Matz
Please make sure you know this is for Game 1, which starts at 4:07 pm Eastern Time. Also, this game is in Anaheim, even though Toronto is the "home team".
Chris Rodriguez (2-1, 3.86) and Steven Matz (9-6, 4.30) are going for Game 1 of this doubleheader. Rodriguez has only pitched 25.2 innings and has only one start on the season. In that start, he pitched fine, going six innings allowing three runs, and collecting seven strikeouts. In that small sample, he has a K-BB% of 12.2% with a K% of 23.5%. Based on those stats, walks can be an issue with Rodriguez. Ideally, I would like to see a pitcher with a BB% of less than 10% along with a K% of more than 20% (which he has). Matz isn't that much better than Rodriguez. Matz does have a similar K% of 23.6% and a lower BB% of 6.2%.
Although both pitchers have some blow-up potential, I think this game is lower scoring than your typical nine-inning game, despite the mediocre pitching on the mound. Both teams are rested since they did not play on Monday, and the back end of both team's bullpen is good. This is the kind of game where a starting pitcher could go six innings and turn it right over to the closer. We also may not see full-strength lineups because some guys will potentially not play both parts of the doubleheader.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Saint Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -120
STL: J.A. Happ| PIT: Steven Brault
I am a little surprised Saint Louis is favored in this game. I understand it is the Pirates, and the Pirates are not a good baseball team. One must also understand that Saint Louis isn't that good either. Steven Brault (0-0, 2.25) made his season debut just this past Wednesday. He pitched fine allowing one run in four innings pitched. Career-wise, Brault isn't that good of a major league pitcher. Every year, he has a SIERA at or over 5.00. In every season but one, he had a K% of under 20% and in all but one year he had a BB% higher than 10%.
Here is the thing though. J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) is about at Braults' level this year. His K% is 17.4%, his BB% is 6.9%. His SIERA is 4.90, indicating his pitching should improve, however regressing to a 5.00 ERA is still pretty bad.
Both teams have been struggling with the bad, so for both teams, facing a pitcher that gives up runs like woah might be what the doctor ordered. I am going to take a shot on the over in this game. I hope the bad starting pitching followed up by bad bullpens results in a high-scoring game. Saint Louis' bullpen ERA is 4.32 while Pittsburgh's is 4.68. This is despite the fact that both offenses are poor and are playing in a pitchers' park in Pittsburgh.
I also get a feeling Brault will pitch better than Happ I do not really have any analysis to back this up, but I think choosing Pittsburgh to win in the first five innings is also a play if you can find it at a good price. Otherwise, if you cannot, I am OK with choosing the Pirates Moneyline.
Pick: Pirates ML (+107) BetMGM, Over 9.5 Runs (+110) BetMGM.
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