X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Betting Picks for Sunday 8/15 - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

Mark Kieffer recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/15/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

This is the last free MLB betting article of the season. We have a full day of games, so let's make this the best day we can! As always, I focus on trying to find where I think some of the best opportunities are in the betting market and make my best guesses there. On many days it might be two or three picks as opposed to trying to have a take for every game out there. I am all about bankroll management and making smart decisions!

I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: ATL -155

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

ATL: Drew Smyly| WAS: Paolo Espino

These two starting pitchers are very similar when looking at the metrics. Drew Smyly (8-3, 4.41) has a SIERA of 4.61 and a K-BB% of 12.5%. Paolo Espino (3-3 3.74) has a SIERA of 4.51 and a K-BB% of 13.5%. Both pitchers are capable of getting blown up. Smyly's blow-ups were more in the early part of the season where he had several starts in a row of allowing 5 runs, however with that out of the way he still has allowed five earned runs in 10 innings pitched his last two starts. Espino actually got blown up his last start on August 4th against Philadelphia, allowing six earned runs in five innings pitched.

With the pitching matchup so even, and Washington playing at home, I have interest in their side mostly due to the odds. It's hard for me to buy that Atlanta is a 61% favorite. This pick here is about trying to get value on the sportsbook, as I think Atlanta's odds of winning are closer to 56-57%.

Pick: Nationals ML (+135) DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

If you love betting on player props, consider signing up for a premium DFS or betting package at RotoBaller and get access to all of the customized strikeout projections that are posted daily in our premium slack chat!

 

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

O/U: 10 | Moneyline: HOU -200

HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.| LAA: Reid Detmers

Poor Ried Detmers (0-2, 10.61) has been struggling and then has to go against one of the better lineups in the league in the Houston Astros. Detmers has pitched each of the last two Sundays. He has allowed 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched, which is not good. I feel bad for the kid, as he was the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft, has the pedigree of a good prospect. He struck out 47 batters in 30 innings in 2020 at the alternate site, and this year had a K% of 43% in AA and 40.9% in his one AAA start.  Despite all of the positives, he's struggled in the big leagues early on, as so many young guys routinely do.

It's easy to see why Houston would be such a heavy favorite in this game with Lance McCullers (9-3, 3.22) on the mound.  I have a hard time recommending the bet on Houston because of how much juice one has to lay. Instead, I am going to recommend the Over 10 runs. While Detmers ERA has not been good and it's very likely he will allow a handful of runs, McCullers has been known to give up runs in bunches as well. In his last four starts, he has allowed four runs exactly three times (he did allow zero runs against the Dodgers on August 3rd). I am not saying he gives up four runs this start, but I could see Detmers allowing four or five runs, before turning the game over to the Angels Bullpen with their 4.69 ERA.  McCullers likely allows a couple of runs and the Astros 3.86 Bullpen ERA allows another run or so. 10 runs are very much in play and if they score exactly 10, it's a push anyway. I'm willing to take a shot here instead of paying the heavy juice for the Astros.

Pick: Over 10 Runs (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK -210

OAK: Sean Manaea| TEX: Kolby Allard

This is a game that on paper one would look at and figure we'd go straight to Oakland here. Sean Manaea (8-7, 3.43) has had a couple of rough outings. Last time out, he pitched 1.2 innings and allowed three runs. The start before,  he pitched 4.1 innings and allowed five runs. He is not in good form. Kolby Allard (2-10, 4.93), on the other hand, has been pitching well of late. He has pitched six innings in each of his last two starts, allowing two runs in each start respectively. Given the trend of both pitchers, Oakland is too big of a favorite in this game. This bet is similar to the first game where this is more about the odds. It is likely that Oakland wins this game, however in the chance that Allard puts together another good start and Manaea still is not right, the +180 payout is a good payoff.  It will definitely be an interesting game to keep an eye on and more than what appears on paper.

Pick: Texas Rangers ML (+180) BetMGM Sportsbook

 

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma