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Big-Time Prospect in the Big Apple
By now you know my stance on pitching. Just in case you developed a case of amnesia in the recent weeks, I think it's so deep with major league talent it's not worth paying much attention to prospects. That is, unless a very special prospect comes along.
The 38th overall pick of the 2010 draft, Noah Syndergaard may end up being one such pitcher. Sure, he's struggled so far above the Double-A level pitching to a combined 4.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP between 2014 and 2015. However, despite his struggles he's still managed a 9.97 K/9 over that stretch.
Let's also remember that the Mets' Triple-A team is in Las Vegas, and the Pacific Coast League is known for being tough on pitchers. Put another way, most of the Pacfic Coast League's parks are not quite as spacious as Citi Field. The tough parks in the league can't explain all of why Syndergaard's numbers have declined, but are certainly a factor.
Ignoring his somewhat bloated Triple-A numbers, Syndergaard's upside is readily apparent when you consider how he pitched between 2010 and 2013. He pitched to a 2.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.14 K/9. If that success could be replicated at the major league level, that would easily make him a front line starter.
He most likely won't get that chance this year. The Mets seem to think he needs a little more development time. If they didn't, there wouldn't be rumors of Rafael Montero joining the Mets' new six man rotation as opposed to Syndergaard. In fact, despite rumors swirling of Dillon Gee being traded there has been very little talk or speculation about the Mets bringing Syndergaard up.
I'm not totally sold on Syndergaard myself. His fastball is great, but his secondary pitches could certainly use a lot of work. He also has some issues with command as evidenced by his start on April 18th, 2015 when he walked five batters in less than four innings.
There's another person in the Majors right now that Syndergaard reminds me of quite a bit. Nathan Eovaldi never had seasoning at Triple-A which may explain some of his lack of success right now, but he is also a power pitcher with a bit of a control issue. Similarly, both pitchers need to work on their secondary offerings to have success at the Major League level.
Just because I see some chinks in the armor with Syndergaard doesn't mean I dislike him going forward. Quite to the contrary, I think he will be a great number two or number three pitcher in the future. It just means that I don't quite see him as the front-line ace that I've heard others tout him as.
That said, can you imagine a rotation where Matt Harvey is your ace, followed by Jacob DeGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Syndergaard? You won't have to use your imagination for long, because that should be the Mets' rotation going into 2016. Just because Syndergaard will be the Mets' fourth starter doesn't mean you should sleep on him. They may be deep in their rotation, but he's capable of being your SP3 as soon as he's promoted.
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