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Analysis of four fantasy football running backs that could be league winners. Are these RBs undervalued players and potential league winners to target in the middle rounds of 2024 drafts?
The middle rounds of fantasy drafts are essential, and once your teams have built their core foundation, it's time to start taking chances. Managers can afford to take some risks on veterans, rookies, players returning from injuries, and high-upside players with playing time concerns.
This article examines some mid-round running backs that could be league winners. Also, check out our other mid-round- running back sleepers article, which lists other backs who are mid-round picks that could potentially break out in 2024.
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David Montgomery, Lions, Fantasy Football Outlook
David Montgomery's first season with Detroit was an unquestioned success, as Jahmyr Gibbs' integration into the Lions' backfield did not prevent Montgomery from assembling a collection of career highs. Montgomery finished 15th overall in rushing attempts (219/15.6 per game) and rose to ninth in rushing yards (1,015). He also established new career bests in yards per game (72.5) and yards per attempt (4.6), established a career-high in yards before contact (511), and vaulted to fifth in yards after contact per attempt (2.3).
David Montgomery with the run of the year and Jamo out front as the lead blocker 🤯
This Detroit Lions offense will be SCARY in 2024#OnePride pic.twitter.com/ha9r5wvXj7
— Crunch Time Sports (@officialctpod) August 14, 2024
Montgomery also tied for fourth with a career-best 50 attempts inside the red zone and was fourth with 17 carries inside the 5 yard-line. He easily surpassed his previous career high by generating 13 touchdowns and was fifth with a TD rate of 5.9%, according to Fantasy Points Data. Montgomery also finished 15th in points per game (14.8), which was the second-highest average of his career. He will also benefit from functioning behind an exceptional offensive line that contains three players who earned selection to the 2023 Pro Bowl (Frank Ragnow/Penei Sewell/Kevin Zeitler).
Montgomery should provide fantasy managers with RB2 production despite Gibbs's presence. That makes him an enticing option in rounds 6-7 (ADP of 66) of best-ball drafts and a target in Round 8 of dynasty startup drafts.
Aaron Jones, Vikings, Fantasy Football Outlook
Aaron Jones joined the rival Minnesota Vikings as a free agent this offseason, and he no longer has Packers coaches holding him back. Talent was never the question with Jones, who routinely exploded off the screen when he had the ball in open space, but usage and health were common concerns with rostering him each year.
The hope is that he will finally see the volume managers have been longing for from the explosive tailback. Thus, injury remains the main concern for those considering drafting him this year. Jones has dealt with numerous soft tissue injuries throughout his career, and last year was no different as he only played in 11 games and was never fully healthy after Week 1, where he posted 26.7 PPR points. He failed to score more than 11 PPR points in all but one game from Weeks 4-11, and when he was finally healthy again at the end of the season, he scored at least 14 PPR points in every game, albeit most of them came after the fantasy season.
5) Aaron Jones is another undervalued veteran RB in ESPN leagues.
The Vikings’ RBs ranked 30th in total yards and touchdowns last season.
Jones finished 2023 strong with 3 consecutive games of at least 14 fantasy points.pic.twitter.com/ly3wenP1Db
— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 10, 2024
Now, Jones finds himself in Minnesota, ready to take on the full workload that he never got in Green Bay. Jones only saw more than 13 carries in one game last year from weeks 1-15, and we are all hoping that is his floor under head coach Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings paid Jones $7 million on a one-year prove-it deal, so there is no question that he will be their featured running back this season. His Yahoo ADP currently sits at RB19 between the fifth and sixth rounds, behind players like David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker, and James Cook, all of whom Jones will likely outscore if he stays healthy, which is the million-dollar question.
Fantasy managers are supposed to assume health, and if we assume that Jones stays healthy all year, he should be a second-round pick at worst. He should be a target for teams that go wide receiver heavy or take a shot at one of the elite tight ends in Round 3 because when he is on the field, Jones is an elite fantasy running back, and right now, his value has never been lower. He can routinely be drafted as an RB2/Flex option, which feels like stealing. With rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy (knee) out for the season, the Vikings will lean on Jones even more in 2024.
James Conner, Cardinals, Fantasy Football Outlook
James Conner reaffirmed his ability to perform proficiently as a lead back in 2023 while also supplying a reminder that he can deliver RB2 output to fantasy managers. Conner accumulated career-highs in multiple categories while progressing through his third season as the Cardinals' primary back.
He eclipsed 1,000+ rushing yards (1,040) for the first time in his career despite missing four matchups with a knee injury. Conner also attained career-bests in yards per game (80.0), yards per attempt (5.0), and yards before contact per attempt (2.8), while generating a league-high 11 rushes of 20+ yards, and finishing third in rush yards over expected (211) according to Next Gen Stats.
Nobody should be worried about Trey Benson taking over James Conner’s starting gig in Arizona this season. Injury is the only way that’s gonna happen. This is Conner’s backfield.
- He’s still a value at ADP62. 🔥 🔥
Vid: @ZKantzFF 👊 pic.twitter.com/5qfGNsXuxW
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) August 11, 2024
Conner also vaulted to 13th in points per game (15.5) from Weeks 1-18, averaging a league-best 23.9 per game from Weeks 13-18. However, Conner's favorable numbers will not prevent him from contending with an emerging threat to confiscate touches. Arizona's selection of Trey Benson during the NFL draft has shifted the outlook for the Cardinals' backfield.
Conner should continue to operate as Arizona's RB1, but Benson's workload should gradually increase during the season. The 29-year-old Conner is also entering the final year of his contract, which positions Benson to ascend into lead-back duties in 2025. That should compel managers to delay the selection of Conner until Round 10 in dynasty startup drafts and Round 6 in best-ball drafts.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers, Fantasy Football Outlook
Despite having yet to start a game in his NFL career, Jaylen Warren has showcased incredible talent, and it will only be a matter of time before he takes over Pittsburgh's backfield. Fourth-year running back Najee Harris has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons in the league.
However, Harris has struggled with efficiency and big-play ability -- hence why Warren's usage continues to increase. While splitting the backfield almost evenly and playing 49% of all offensive snaps last season, Warren ran for 784 yards and four touchdowns on just 149 carries. He also caught 61 of his 74 targets for 370 yards through the air.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both finish as top-24 RBs.
- Improved O-line
- Run heavy scheme
- Better QB playThe Steelers ranked bottom 5 in scoring last season, I’d expect them to improve to middle of the pack.
Both talented and should split about 50/50 https://t.co/nj5OE23C6r
— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) August 13, 2024
The third-year back has a higher ceiling than Harris, and his playing time should only go up with the new Steelers offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who is now at the helm. Among players with at least 140 attempts last season, Warren had the second-highest yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt. With Pittsburgh's additions on the offensive line, he is in a position to take over the team's backfield.
Warren currently ranks as RotoBaller's RB28 with an ADP of 83.0 on Yahoo. Getting a player as talented as Warren in the eighth round is a ridiculous steal that you should take advantage of in all drafts. Update (08/22/2024): Warren will miss multiple weeks after suffering a hamstring injury in Saturday's preseason game against the Buffalo Bills. According to Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, Warren will miss the preseason finale against the Detroit Lions, " but added that the running back's hamstring issue is "not anything that's a long-term concern." His status for Week 1 is up in the air, but fantasy managers might want to bump his ADP down a few slots after the latest injury news.
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