RADIO
We continue our long-running series of articles debating fantasy rankings with a player that is sure to be a first-round pick in all formats. Or is he?
RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.
Today, the topic is Baltimore Orioles third baseman and, potentially Opening Day shortstop this season, Manny Machado. Pierre Camus will argue that Machado is a top-10 pick that is being overlooked this draft season, while Kyle Bishop isn't quite so optimistic about a slugger who struggled at times last season. Let's get ready to rumble!
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2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Manny Machado
| Rank | Tier | Player | Position | Kyle | Nick | Pierre | Jeff | Harris | Bill |
| 15 | 2 | Manny Machado | 3B/SS | 18 | 16 | 7 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
Pierre Camus' Ranking: #7 overall
What Did He Ever Do to You?
Manny Machado didn't end the 2017 season with numbers befitting a first-round pick and he flat-out stunk reaching base in the first half, hitting .230 with an on-base percentage below the .300 mark. That's about the worst you can say about him (although I have faith that Kyle will come up with something). I guess you could point to the fact he only stole nine bases, but that's actually nine more than he had the previous year when he came away with a big donut in the speed category.
Despite some holes in his swing, he still struck out less than league average during his rough patch (19.7% K%) and posted a .445 slugging percentage, thanks to the fact he swatted 18 home runs before the break. When all was said and done, Machado had a solid 0.43 BB/K that was an improvement over 2016, led by the second-highest walk total of his career. He also finished with 33 HR and 95 RBI, falling one ribbie short of his career mark in the category. He also did something that shouldn't be taken for granted--he showed up. Machado logged 690 plate appearances, which makes three years in a row and four of the last five in which he played nearly every game without incident. Well, at least without injury. There may have been a few incidents here and there.
BABIP is a Thing That Sometimes Matters
The only glaring hole in Machado's statistical resume is the fact that his average sank last year. The power numbers were every bit as good and we know if he reaches base more often, he's a great bet to reach the 100-run mark again. We already saw that his struggles weren't attributed to lower plate discipline, so what was it, just bad luck? Actually.... yes!
Machado's .265 BABIP from 2017 was a full 36 points lower than his career average. The main problem is that his line drive rate and ground ball rate had a trade-off of about five points, which placed them both in danger zones for a slugger like him. His 39.5% hard-hit ball rate was actually the best of his career, but it doesn't matter if you're scorching line drives right at an infielder's glove. Machado's batted-ball profile should even out a bit, regressing positively in the areas that hurt him the most. That doesn't mean he'll be a .300 hitter, because he never has been, but if he can live in the .280s with 30+ HR and 90+ RBI, then he returns to, dare I say, elite status.
Yes, He's an Elite Player - Deal With It
But wait! Didn't players like Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, and Mike Moustakas put up similar numbers? Why not just wait a few rounds and get a much cheaper player at third base? First of all, none of those guys have the talent level or track record of Machado. More importantly, we're not talking about the same set of peers in 2018 because Machado is going back where he started, at shortstop.
Manager Buck Showalter already proclaimed Machado to be the Opening Day shortstop this season, as Tim Beckham takes over the hot corner. This isn't being done against his will, mind you. Machado lobbied to switch so he could prove that he's capable of showing his Gold Glove form at the toughest position. If anything, this should prove to be a motivational tool for him, much like Andrew McCutchen's move back to center field spurred him onto one of the best seasons of his illustrious career. Machado gets a bad rap for his temper, but he is an iron man and an aficionado of the game. As he said himself, "If you want to be the best, you have to work."
Work, he will. Machado's HR and RBI totals from his "disappointing" 2017 already trumps all shortstops. A modest improvement in BABIP, leading to a higher average, would place him as the clear #1 player at the SS position. The drop-off is rather steep, as players like Francisco Lindor, Didi Gregorius, and Elvis Andrus posted career years and could be due for negative regression.
On draft day, we are prone to several biases that cloud us to the superior talent available. I advise you not to overpay for last year's numbers (Giancarlo Stanton), stick with the brand-name guys from big market teams (Mookie Betts) or prioritize playoff heroics for a competition that takes place in the regular season (Carlos Correa). Machado is the most physically gifted infielder in the game and at 25 years old, could be primed for his best season ever.
Kyle Bishop's Ranking: #18 overall
Pierre's just mad that he traded me Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez for Machado last year (the pair combined is $10 cheaper to keep this year, by the way). But seriously, folks...
Splitting Hairs
I definitely don't hate Machado. I'm not even actually the lowest ranker on him - that, in somewhat of a surprise, would be resident Orioles fan Jeff Kahntroff - and I've got him comfortably in the second round. In fact, in our first staff mock this year, I took Machado 10th overall. To my mind, there's little separating many of the consensus high picks this year. Even the tiniest seed of doubt is enough to decide favor in a comparison. It would surprise me more if Machado failed to hit 30 home runs than it would if he hit 40. But I do have two concerns with him in 2018.
First, I'm not sure we can attribute all of his BABIP decline to simple rotten luck. Machado developed a strong pull tendency on ground balls last season. If that lingers, it won't matter how hard he hits the ball when it goes right into the teeth of a shift. He's not especially fast, either, despite that 20-steal season in 2015 that looks like a huge outlier right now. Machado is just 9-for-16 on thefts in the two seasons since; don't expect much help in that area.
Second, Machado has typically been good for borderline elite run production, thanks in part to the powerful lineup around him. The O's don't look like they'll be quite so formidable this time around. Tim Beckham had one great month and now he's hitting leadoff. Mark Trumbo went back to being Mark Trumbo. Austin Hays and Chance Sisco haven't proven anything. Adam Jones is another year older. And who the hell knows which version of Chris Davis will show up?
Nitpicking? Perhaps. But with a pool of elites that runs as deep as the one we enjoy right now, it makes sense to pick nits early. In the first round, more often than not, I'm going to chase a five-category guy, and Machado isn't quite there.
