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The transfer portal and conference realignment are beginning to shake up college basketball.
While the season is still young, Ryan Goodman (@RJthegoodman) and I dove into each major conference looking for potential winners, sleepers, and valuable bets during non-conference play.
Enjoy our thoughts on a few of the nation's highest-rated teams, along with some of the less-talked-about squads this year.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Nick’s Pick: Duke (+140 Caesars)
Duke is the clear class of the ACC this year. Preseason All-American Kyle Filipowski leads the charge along with three other returning starters and a top freshman. There’s no value in coach Jon Scheyer’s bunch to take home the ACC title as they’re also one of the top national title contenders.
Sleeper: Pittsburgh (+5000 FanDuel)
After their first NCAA Tournament berth in six years, Jeff Capel hopes to return to the big dance with even higher aspirations this year. Wing Blake Hinson is one of the best in the ACC, who will be alongside transfer Ishmael Leggett in the backcourt to fill the void left by Jamarius Burton. They also possess the post presence to hang with the likes of UNC and Duke. It’s a long shot, but the Panthers are talented enough to compete here.
Ryan’s Pick: Duke (+140 Caesars)
It’s honestly hard to see anyone else winning the ACC this year, unfortunately. While it should be an improved conference overall, the Blue Devils stick out as the clear-cut best team with a lot of returning star talent coupled with an excellent freshman class. Having a player like Kyle Fillipowski come back is such a huge boost for head coach Jon Scheyer and gives Duke one of the highest floors in the nation. The former No. 4 overall recruit is truly a special player that could lead them to a championship. There’s no doubt the Blue Devils will be the toughest team in the conference to beat on a nightly basis.
Sleeper: Virginia (+800)
The Wahoos lost a lot of production from last year but retained the most important piece in point guard Reece Beekman. There are a lot of unknowns, but also a lot of hidden talent that could develop quicker than most expect. Tony Bennett is the best regular-season coach in college basketball. Saying that feels like an insult since it implies shortcomings in postseason play, which has been true, although he can always fall back on his turnaround title for the ages in 2019. Regardless, Bennet has won a ridiculous six ACC regular season titles in the 14 years of coaching at Virginia. With a talented roster led by a top-five ACC player, if someone is going to challenge Duke, why not the Hoos who have had their number in recent years?
Southeastern Conference
Nick’s Pick: Kentucky (+600 FanDuel)
Loaded with young talent this bunch has an incredibly high ceiling. With the top recruiting class in 2023 and the addition of WVU transfer Tre Mitchell, Calipari’s Wildcat roster reminds me of his early years at Kentucky. Tennessee is the betting favorite to take home the SEC title returning their top four scorers, however, we’ve seen their offensive limitations and scoring woes. I believe Kentucky will only gel and improve as the season goes along. The roster potential makes this a valuable number to bet on as the Wildcats have their first true test tonight against top-ranked Kansas.
Sleeper: Arkansas (+1000 FanDuel)
The trend continues here, as Arkansas can attack you in waves with athleticism and skill. Led by Trevon Brazile and several transfers, they can shoot, turn you over, and get to the free-throw line as well as anyone on a given night. Not to mention Eric Musselman coaching in the Elite Eight or Sweet Sixteen for three years straight. If either Fall or Blocker, both five-star freshmen, become big-time contributors the Razorbacks could find themselves in National Title contention come March.
Ryan’s Pick: Tennessee (+300 FanDuel)
As I mentioned in my underrated teams for the 2023-24 article, Tennessee is going to be a very good basketball team this year. Rick Barnes has had this program playing incredibly consistent, top-tier defense year-over-year. I believe with a healthy Zakai Zeigler (fingers crossed) and the addition of transfer SG Dalton Knect, this team will take the conference regular season for the first time since 2018. Although, I will admit that Kentucky performance against Kansas in the Champions Classic made a little nervous for this one *loosens collar*.
Sleeper: Mississippi State (+3000 Caesars)
The Bulldogs are another one of my favorite teams for 2023-24. Chris Jans made the Big Dance in his first year as head coach and brought back all five starters. One of those guys is an SEC Player of the Year candidate in forward Tolu Smith. Now Smith is currently out with a foot injury and is expected back sometime during SEC play but if this team can tread water and stay in the top 5-6 of the standings by the time he returns, they could pull off something they haven’t done since 2004.
Big Ten
Nick’s Pick: Purdue (+150 DraftKings)
The Boilermakers are the clear Big 10 favorite and difficult to make a case against, at least in conference play. They returned guards Smith, Loyer, and Gillis alongside Naismith Award Winner Zach Edey. The aforementioned trio are excellent shooters and only a handful of teams in the country can slow Edey down. For the sake of betting on conference title winners, Purdue could run away with the Big 10 but I don’t see value in the number. Now if we’re talking about Matt Painter and facing a ball-pressure defense in March, we might have a different story.
Sleeper: Michigan State (+380 DraftKings)
Not a sleeper, per se, but Michigan State is the only other team I think has a realistic shot at the Big 10 title. The rest of this conference is a hodge-podge mash of mediocre teams with some upside but obvious flaws. Unlike most teams this year, Sparty didn’t bring in tons of transfers. Instead, they’re going to rely on returning guards Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard, the best duo in the conference. Veteran forward Malik Hall is joined by a top recruiting class giving the back end of Izzo’s roster a much-needed bump down low. Michigan State might have a higher ceiling than Purdue, but it’s difficult to argue they’ll be the more consistent team throughout conference play.
Ryan’s Pick: Purdue (+150 DraftKings)
It’s hard to determine which one is the bigger lockout of Purdue, Kansas, and Duke winning their conferences (so maybe you should just parlay all three and get +1400 odds!). Like Nick, I truly have a tough time envisioning the Boilermakers getting challenged for the regular season crown this year. This team just swept the regular season and conference championships a season ago and returned basically everyone of note. One of those guys is 2023 Naismith Award winner Zach Edey, who is of course the heavy favorite to repeat. Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are no longer freshmen and make up one of the best backcourts in the country. Matt Painter is still there. Purdue will once again be the juggernaut of this league.
Sleeper: Illinois (+1000 FanDuel)
I almost went with Michigan, but I don’t believe in them enough to truly have a shot here. The Illini should be neck and neck with MSU, fighting it out for regular season runner-up. Who’s to say they don’t have a few things bounce in their favor and sneak past Purdue come the season’s end? Brad Underwood may have the second-best player in the Big Ten in wing Terrance Shannon, who is one of my favorite collegiate basketball players to watch. A lot of this depends on whether versatile big man Coleman Hawkins can finally become the player he’s been touted as. If that happens, Illinois has a fighting chance.
Big 12
Nick’s Pick: Houston (+375 DraftKings)
You’d be an extremely poor man if you’ve faded Kansas in the Big 12 race with them finishing in sole possession or tied for first for 17 straight years. That being said, Houston’s first year in the Big 12 could be a doozy. Their top-to-bottom strength and length give teams fits on the defensive end. Combine that with Baylor sharpshooter LJ plus veteran guard Jamal Shead, and you have a roster attacking in waves. Year after year Kelvin Sampson has one of the best offensive rebounding and defensive units in all of college basketball, and this should be no different. I love this group and think they can give Kansas fits with their versatile play style.
Sleeper: Baylor (+850 FanDuel)
Scott Drew’s new-look Baylor Bears look to get back to their defensive ways in 2023. With the departure of all three starting guards from a season ago we’ve already seen the newcomers begin to step up. Former Toledo star RayJ Dennis and VCU transfer Jayden Nunn should hold down the backcourt while freshman Yves Missi and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua can defend with the best in the Big 12. Their X-factor here is five-star freshman Ja’Kobe Walter, who’s excelled on the offensive end through three games and looks to carry his team to a conference title and deep run in March.
Ryan’s Pick: Kansas (+200 DraftKings)
I may be getting a little ahead of myself by virtually declaring Kansas, Purdue, and Duke conference winners already, but I do think those teams are a tier above everyone else in their respective leagues. Houston is very good and loved by a lot of the metrics sites, but I’m just so high on the Dickinson - Bill Self pairing this year that I genuinely think there’s a chance the former Michigan big man challenges Edey for the Naismith. Kansas is not all that deep, but their starting five is the best in college basketball, and there’s definitely some talent on the bench. Give me another Kansas regular season Big 12 title, which would be their 18th in as many years (won outright or tied for).
Sleeper: TCU (+1000 DraftKings)
This pick feels eerily similar to my Mississippi State dark horse selection for the SEC. Both are fringe top-25, picked to finish upper-middle of their conference and hang their hat on defense. Jamie Dixon has brought a newfound excitement to his alma mater, having reached the NCAA tournament in three out of seven seasons, after the Horned Frogs failed to do so once in the previous twenty years! He lost an elite scorer in Mike Miles Jr. to the NBA but brought in two big-time transfers to help make up for that, most notably Jameer Nelson Jr. from Delaware. This team definitely has some potential downfalls - namely three-point shooting and rebounding - but Dixon reloaded nicely and should have his squad near the top of the conference yet again.
Big East
Nick’s Pick: Creighton (+300 DraftKings)
The Big East is a three-team race, all of whom can make a claim to this season’s throne. The Jays return potential All-American Ryan Kalkbrenner, arguably the best rim protector in the country. Alongside him return Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman, the most experienced bunch in this conference. Add Utah State sniper Steven Ashworth with a few other newcomers and Coach McDermott’s bunch should be right in contention all year.
Sleeper: Seton Hall (+4000 BetMGM)
To me, there’s a massive talent drop-off behind Marquette, Connecticut, and Creighton in the Big 12. Shaheen Holloway is only in year 2 at Seton Hall but, for my money, is already one of the best coaches in the conference. This veteran-laden roster is going to give teams fits with ball pressure and shot contesting. While 40-1 is a massive number, I think one of the big three teams is going to take down the Big East crown and I prefer to find play-on spots for Seton Hall throughout the season as opposed to making a bet here.
Ryan’s Pick: Connecticut (+280 DraftKings)
Agree completely with Nick that one of Creighton, Marquette, or UConn will very likely win this conference, but I’m going to go with the defending national champs here. All three of these teams have fantastic rosters top to bottom, and I can’t wait for them to match up with one another. Clingan vs. Kalkbrenner. Tyler Kolek & Kam Jones vs. Tristen Newton & Stephon Castle. I’m giving the Huskies the slight edge because I think they have the deepest team, and that will ultimately help them win an additional game or two more than their counterparts.
Sleeper: Providence (+5000 Caesars)
I’m not quite sure why this number still exists for Providence, as all the other big sportsbooks have them around +2500, but if you can get them here, don’t hesitate. It’s Kim English’s first year as head coach, but he has some certified studs on his team already with Bryce Hopkins and Devin Carter. Add a four-star freshman to the mix who already looks the part along with a couple of talented transfers, and you have a perfect recipe for a sleeper sitting right in front of you. With how talented the three teams mentioned above are, it’s still a longshot, but the Friars already pulled it off as recently as two years ago (picked 7th in the preseason poll, won outright).
I hope you enjoyed our brief conference previews and have some rooting interest as the season goes along. We have some excellent early-season matchups on the horizon as early-season tournaments begin. Keep an eye out for our weekly big game articles and favorite spots throughout the year!
