RADIO
Hello to all of my regular League DFSers as well as to all of my newcomers looking to try out a new DFS sport/game. I truly believe LoL is one of the best games to sweat and it's always nice to wake up to some results in the morning. We have a 4 game slate tonight with 2 pretty close games and 2 lopsided ones, should be a really good one for DFS!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, July 28th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups
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4:15 AM: LSB(-400) vs. NS (+288)
I sound like a broken record when it comes to both of these teams I think. Nongshim has performed way below their expected and Sandbox has performed way above. While their records from this split say otherwise, this game is probably much closer than these odds would have you believe. Eventually this NS team has to learn to play in this meta and return to their spring form.... right? LSB has been on fire this split so far but I still don't hold them to as high a standard of play as a team like GEN, T1, DWG. I think they fall in the mid table category clearly and until they prove otherwise I won't count any game against a bottom of the table team as a "gimme." I'd look to take shots on NS in some GPP spots and more avoid this game in cash than anything else.
Top LSB plays: Prince, Croco
Top NS plays: Ghost, Bdd
7:15 AM: Gen.G (-526) vs. DRX (+358)
Starting 3 hours later is our 2nd LCK game of the night. Both of these teams belong in the top half of the table and this is another spot where maybe the given odds are too lopsided. Don't get me wrong, I think Gen.G should still be favored, but maybe a -300 or -250 spot instead of this egregious -526. DRX is not a pushover team and I don't think we should look at this game as an absolute lock win for GEN. That being said, this is likely the place to be in your cash lineups main stack with 3-4 GEN players. They are the biggest favorite of the night and In addition, in my opinion the most likely to win their game. That's not saying much given the odds, but they truly are a good team. Both sides of this game are also in play for GPP. Given the pricing of tonight I think that we see teams like NS and DRX used even less so than normal. A lot of combinations fit together well unlike some nights where the two biggest favorites can only be stacked together with a support captain slot. I like taking some longshot stabs at DRX as a result even more so in GPPs.
Top GEN Plays: Ruler, Chovy
Top DRX Plays: Zeka, Deft
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LPL Matches
5:15 AM: UP (-149) vs. IG (+116)
Out of the two LPL games we have tonight, this is shaping up to be the more popular spot across the board. The game total is 3 kills higher in this game than in BLG vs FPX and these teams are more known as high paced spots than the other game. Pricing also allows nearly anything on this slate so double adc/mid builds will be used frequently. Given the close odds in both of the LPL games it's also likely we see a lot of double LPL teams used so it may be wise to look to pair either of these teams with an LCK counterpart. Both of these teams haven't shown anything to be really proud of, and as a result haven't gained much respect in betting markets against one another. I don't like either team to pick a side here to be confident with, but it's hard to deny that this spot is a great one for fantasy output. I'd look to incorporate this game into your GPP lineups often. Not sure if playing any side in cash makes a lot of sense but you do have to have a second team with GEN. LSB makes the most sense odds wise but they do have a wildly low game total. Maybe this game is something to consider in that aspect.
Top UP Plays: Elk, Crrin
Top IG Plays: Xun, Ahn
7:15 AM: FPX (-137) vs. BLG (+108)
For our second game of the night we have a battle of two of the slower teams in the LPL. FPX has looked a lot better than BLG has in recent weeks, however, BLG has come back today with a "mostly" spring starting lineup. Doggo and Weiwei back should bode well for this team overall and as a result I like them a bit more than FPX here. FPX has been really solid with Summit, but I think the market has under-adjusted to the return of this lineup instead of using Rise/can. I will likely look to use a lot of Bilibili in GPP builds and try and avoid FPX in most spots. FPX is not a great spot for cash and I don't feel great taking FPX with the pricing and their likely over-popularity. I will admit I do have some minor BLG bias here, but I do think the return to this lineup should bode extremely well for them
Top FPX Plays: Lwx, Summit
Top BLG Plays: Weiwei, Doggo
Summary
- TLDR: This slate is pretty wide open in regards to pricing, as a result i expect to see a lot of double favorite lineups and with underdogs that are as small dogs as BLG and IG, I recommend taking a lot of underdog stacks in your GPP builds. Double underdog builds with one LCK dog will be under-utilized significantly in my opinion so I may look to make a point of using that. If you have any questions, shoot me a message on twitter!
- GPP Stacks: BLG, IG, NS
- Cash Stacks: GEN, maybe IG or UP????
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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