RADIO
Jason Malmanger provides expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and analysis for DraftKings LPL and LCK LoL slates on 3/28/20. RotoBaller has you covered with the top picks and value plays to build winning LoL DFS rosters for cash games and GPPs.
Welcome to RotoBaller's league of legends DFS column. We'll be ramping up our analysis for LoL DFS this weekend, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I'm here to help you out by breaking down these matchups and highlighting a few players to target from each one.
The LCK side of things seems pretty clear cut, meanwhile, the LPL outlook is very clouded. Remember that LPL matches usually have higher death counts and therefore often more fantasy appeal than the LCK matches.
Today I'll be bringing League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for the 2:00 AM LPL and LCK slate on Saturday morning, March 28th, 2020.
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League of Legends DFS Basics
We'll start with some general tips and tricks in case the ESports bug hasn't bitten you. Both of these leagues, the LPL and LCK, play in a best-of-3 scenario. LPL starting lineups for all the matches are released hours before lock and are widely available on Twitter. LCK lineups, however, are not. I only listed players below who I believe will be playing.
- Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. Players from teams that sweep the series will receive a 20-point games-not-played bonus. If your team sweeps, the team slot gets a 15-point bonus.
- Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day with 3-3-1 becoming more popular as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In Lol DFS, it is essential to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. Meaning there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs, bring down your pitcher's score.
- Along with this, another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack, that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others, so consider stats like kill participation before you make your final decision.
LCK Matches
2:00 AM: Damwon Gaming vs. APK Prince
Damwon has had their struggles this split. Whatever the cause, I know the cure. APK Prince has never beaten DWG stretching back to their time together in Challengers Korea. Challengers is the equivalent of AAA ball for anyone wondering. DWG has only lost two games to APK throughout seven total best of three series. I do not see this changing now. DWG should be able to do what they do best here. Win lane win game. There have been rumblings about DWG changing up their lineup, especially with them signing Ghost at ADC during the break. Be sure to monitor the situation on twitter leading up to lock.
Canyon - JNG ($6,800)
The jungler leads his team in kill participation with 70%. He will be an integral part of getting his solo lanes ahead and allowing DWG to snowball the game out of control.
Nuguri - Top ($7000)
Although he hasn't shown it recently, Auguri has drawn comparisons to Theshy for his ability to dominate a game from the top lane. He could have 100 point upside here as Damwon look to re-establish their winning ways.
5:00 AM: Afreeca Freecs vs. Gen G
Afreeca's best chance to win any game is to scale up their bot lane and let Mystic hard carry. The problem with that strategy vs. Gen G is that Ruler is also a significant win condition for this Gen G team. Gen G is significantly better everywhere else across the map, not including the top lane matchup. Afreeca remains one of the most confusing squads in the LCK. They have both terrible losses to lesser teams and an impressive 2-1 victory over T1, another favorite to win the league.
They took one game from Gen G in the first round-robin, and that combined with a history of playing up to better competition is letting us grab Gen G at a discount today. Over the last two years, these teams are precisely split their series and their games with each other. They stand tied at 4-4 series score and 10-10 game score. I will stand firm on Gen G due to their overall superior talent and early game prowess.
Bdd - MID ($7,200)
Mid lane is a problem area for this Afreeca squad. Not so for Gen G. Bdd leads the team in kill participation with73.5% odd for a mid-laner. Even though Gen G lost one game to Afreeca in their first match, Bdd still scored 97 Draftkings points. If Gen G sweeps this go around, he has upside for even more.
Clid - JNG ($6,600)
A lot of talent and upside here for this price. Mid jungle stacks are nearly as common and productive as bot lane duo stacking. Clid had 79 DraftKings points in the first matchup. I believe he also has a 100 point upside in this match.
8:00 AM: Dragon X vs. Griffin
After a frustrating loss to T1 on Friday morning, DRX looks to get back on track vs. Griffin on Saturday. Griffin acquitted themselves well on Friday morning vs. Sandbox, but Dragon X will be looking to take out some frustrations here. DRX is a very snowball type of team. They are second in the LCK in gold differential at 15 minutes. In that crucial early game benchmark, Griffin is 3rd worst. DRX should cruise to a comfortable victory here.
Pyosik - JNG ($7,000)
The rookie is second on the team in kill participation with 74.6% He has gelled with his bot lane duo. I see them as an excellent stacking opportunity in what should be a higher upside matchup for DRX.
Keria - SUP ($5,600)
Keria, the other rookie on the team mixed so well with the veteran Deft; you'd think they had been together for years. Keria leads the team in KP% with 76.8%
Deft - ADC ($7,600)
I like Deft here as well. He is the veteran on this team. They will need his leadership to bounce back after Friday's loss to T1. He sports a 68% kill participation along with a 31% kill share. The difference being involved in a kill vs. who gets the kill. Deft has been cleaning up on the rift and will make a good addition to your lineup Saturday am.
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD vs. Victory 5
A battle between two cellar dwellers. Not exactly what you would call a "hype" matchup. LGD had a nice run of form recently, but a bad loss to Vici gaming has them back in the basement ahead of only V5. V5 has only secured one game win, and zero series wins thus far in the LPL season. Every possible stat points to LGD winning this series. The problem lies in them being priced as the second or third best team on DraftKings. Victory 5 average nearly 22 deaths in games which they lose.
That was the basis for playing a lot of OMG earlier in the week, and that worked out nicely. They could pay off those lofty tags with that kind of upside. I plan to have a few shares of V5 on Saturday morning as well. V5 has looked a bit better recently since the return of their starting jungler and support from quarantine. LGD is the correct play, but v5 has a murders row of games upcoming. They face RNG FPX IG SNG, so if they don't win tomorrow, they likely don't for two weeks.
Kramer - ADC ($8,200)
Second on the team in KP%, Kramer is a player we have seen pop off recently. He scored 92 Draftkings points in a loss to Sng and 111 vs. TES in a 2-0 win. With the high numbers of deaths projected for v5, even though he's expensive here for a player on a bad team, you have to remember v5 is worse.
Peanut - JNG ($5,200)
The team leader in KP% he has had some very lovely performances lately. The team has been drafting him some early game power picks like Elise and Olaf. That investment in him is paying off nicely, and I expect this trend to continue on Saturday.
5:00 AM: Billibilli Gaming vs. Team WE
This is a very tight matchup. At first glance, it seems to be very one-sided. We are fifth in the league right now, whereas BLG is 14th. Once we start to dig further tho things become a little clearer. We are 10-8 in game-score, which is less impressive than their fifth-place standing. BLG is 8-14, which doesn't seem significant. BLG has, however, played the hardest schedule so far in the LPL. They were a playoff team in summer last year and have gotten off to a rough start. They have lost to FPX, eStar, JDG, OMG, LNG, and SNG. WE have victories over V5, Vici, DMO, RW, and SNG.
One team has a much easier schedule than the other one. I don't blame anyone for taking WE hear as they have been great and are fun to watch. I will call the "upset" and take BLG to start their season turn around here. I've been mentioning this as often as I can but they are a huge buy-low candidate for me.
Meteor - JNG ($6,000)
Look, I get it. You love Beishang. You're not wrong I do too BaeBae has won me too much money not to love him, Let me tell you a little about Meteor. He's one of my favorite LPL players. He is under contract through 2022 that's massive. A multi-year deal like that is typically reserved for franchise-type players. The dude has a champion ocean; he leads the league with 12 unique champion picks out of the jungle. Beishang is second, so this matchup will be a blast to watch. Meteor is second on the team in KP%, and he will be a big reason that BLG wins.
FoFo - Mid ($6,8000)
Fofo came over from the LMS in the offseason. Much like maple before him, but I see FoFo as a superior player. He leads the team in KP with 76.7%. He is another very flexible player with 13 different champions of his own. He and Meteor open up a lot of opportunities to get ahead in the draft with their ability to play just about anything. I expect BLG to target ban Teacherma in the draft phase to exploit his lack of champions.
7:00 AM: Invictus Gaming vs. Suning
No team is more frustrating to pick than Invictus. They have to ability to make or break any DFS slate they are on. They are the 2018 world champions and can be unbeatable when they are on. They can also just plain give up in a game as they did game two vs. Estar. The reason for this is because they can. IG excel at team fighting. They have unmatched target selection, which allows them to win fights; they should never have a chance to win. Down 5k, 8k, 10k, gold even this team is dangerous. I expect them to bounce back here after being embarrassed by eStar.
SNG is also in a great spot. If you would have simply stacked whoever played IG so far this year, you'd be well ahead. A perfect matchup to hedge and maybe even game stack, I will probably have some of each side. IG is starting Leyan, which I see as a boost to SNG. if you try the IG side, I will not choose Leyan as he is a significant risk to get subbed out in series.
SofM - SNG - JNG ($6,200)
At nearly 80% KP and facing the worse of IG's two junglers, if SNG gets this win, SofM will be a huge contributor to it. His ability to track the enemy jungler's movement will hinder Leyan, primarily due to his preference for assassin style champions. It's hard to surprise someone who knows your location.
Theshy - IG - TOP ($7,400)
In the SNG-LNG matchup on Tuesday, Flandre pulled out the Kallista top pick. He was not successful. He is also not Theshy. Theshy is the best TOP in the world, and it's not particularly close. He is third in the league in damage per minute. DPM is a stat usually reserved for ADCs. all other members of the top 5 are ADCs. Look for IG to prioritize dominant lane champions for him, such as the Kalista, as mentioned earlier or his signature Jayce pick.
Excitement for ESports is in the air. DraftKings continues to put up some monster contest for the overnight LPL/LCK slates. The LEC finishes up its spring playoff push Saturday a.m. Saturday afternoon, the LCS returns. Sunday brings us a 300k guaranteed tournament for the LCS finale. Check back throughout the week as we'll publish more Esports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.
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