Lions vs. Packers TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave

September 27, 2023

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Lions and Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 (2023). Detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

Our string of two straight Thursday Night Football bangers came to an end last week when the San Francisco 49ers trampled all over the New York Giants, so we now turn our attention to an NFC North clash between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.

Both of these teams have retooled in the least two years and feature young playmakers all over the field. Their offenses are both ascending and their defenses are improving. I, for one, will be shocked if we get a blowout in this game and it may end up being one of the more entertaining Thursday night entrees of the year.

Both teams are coming off big wins and are looking to build more momentum in Week 4, and this should be a competitive game for the NFC North foes. I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this fourth Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - 8:15 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• David Montgomery (RB. DET) - Thigh - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
• Aaron Jones (RB, GBP) - Hamstring - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
• Christian Watson (WR, GBP) - Hamstring - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY (on a snap count)

The Lions-Packers Matchup

Both the Lions and the Packers have started the season on fire on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams rank top-eight in offensive touchdowns per game and are top-12 in points per play. However, both teams have relied a lot on the long touchdown to start the season. Detroit and Green Bay are tied for 16th in Red Zone scoring attempts per game, but it hasn't mattered because Jared Goff and Jordan Love have been slinging it around the field as both deal with injured running backs.

Detroit and Green Bay are both in the top four teams for yards per completion this season, so there is potential for some fireworks in this one, depending on what each defense can do. Both teams have been excellent on this side of the ball as well. Detroit and Green Bay are both in the top ten for fewest yards per play to opponents and both had a sack percentage over 10% in their last game. This might be one of those irresistible-force and immovable-object-type games, and we will have to wait and see which unit cracks first.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

Even with a hurt foot last weeks, St. Brown still caught nine balls on 12 targets for 102 yards. After two seasons of production, it's clear that St. Brown might have the safest PPR floor in fantasy this side of Keenan Allen. He is a set-it-and-forget-it play Thursday with Green Bay allowing a 64% completion percentage to opponents so far in 2023.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

David Montgomery is extremely questionable for this game with a thigh bruise and it makes a lot of sense for Detroit to hold him out and have him return in Week 5 after the long layoff. With D-Mont out last week, Gibbs saw the highest snap count in his young career (60%) and saw all the team's targets to running backs as well as the team's running back Red Zone opportunities.

Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)

Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season will be known as the Sam LaPorta breakout game with his eight catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. But the truth is, the signs were already pointing that direction all season. LaPorta's targets have increased each week and he has played at least 75% of snaps every week. There were 30 total targets in the Lions' Week 3 game and LaPorta and St. Brown saw 22 of them.

Rookie TE Air Yards Share Leaders in Week 3:

Sam LaPorta 31% 👀
Luke Musgrave 15%
Julian Hill 3%
Michael Mayer 3%

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) September 27, 2023

Aaron Jones (RB, GBP)

Aaron Jones is trending towards playing on Thursday night after Coach Matt LaFleur said he is "cautiously optimistic" he suits up against the Lions. Considering the putrid A.J. Dillon performances the last two weeks, Jones should get a lot of work assuming he is active. Detroit has been a stout run defense this season, but they have given up the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs. That's an area where Jones can excel.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jared Goff (QB, DET)

The home-road splits for Jared Goff are well-documented at this point, but here is a refresher. Goff averages 264 yards per game on a 67% completion percentage at home, but just 253 yards on a 62% completion rate on the road. He has 18 more touchdowns at home in just three more games than on the road and has six fewer interceptions. This game being played at Lambeau Field has me listing Goff outside my top-12 quarterbacks for the week.

Jordan Love (QB, GBP)

The stats from Jordan Love have been absolutely tremendous in his first three games, especially when you consider that he has been without Christian Watson in those contests. But they have also been a little bit fluky. Love ranks number one overall in fantasy points per drop-back, but he is 33rd in true completion percentage and also 33rd in clean pocket completion percentage. What's leveraged Love's numbers up is his 67% Red Zone completion percentage (eighth among QBs). If that regresses this week, he will see the elite fantasy stats go down.

Jordan Love is a fantasy mirage.

Through 2 weeks:

* 55.8% completion rate
* 7.6 YPA
* 198 passing yards per game
* 11.5% passing TD rate (league-wide average is about 4.5%)

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 18, 2023

Christian Watson (WR, GBP)

Christian Watson is another player who is likely to play, according to Coach LaFleur, as long as he doesn't have any other setbacks in practice. The caveat is Watson is expected to be on a snap count in his first game of the season. Watson is the team's best receiver and the only thing that gives me some pause on recommending him as a must-start is this pitch count in his first game action in 2023. If we get word that he will be closer to 100% than 50%, bump him up to must-start with the Lions allowing over nine yards per completion to opponents this season.

Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed (WRs, GBP)

The value of each of these three Green Bay wide receivers is all tied to one another. If Watson is limited, Doubs and Reed get bumps back up as both saw snap rates over 66% and more than seven targets last week. If Watson is looking like he will play a full game, they may all just cannibalize each other's opportunities. The one thing working in their favor this week is Jordan Love's preference to go to wide receivers in the Red Zone.

In Week 3, only seven wide receivers saw at least three Red Zone targets. Doubs and Reed were two of those receivers.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Luke Musgrave (TE, GBP)

With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson due back for this game, I fear the target share for Luke Musgrave falls way off. Musgrave did see eight targets in Week 3, but his total from the first two weeks was just seven. However, if you need a glimmer of hope for Musgrave, the Lions have allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to the position through the first three weeks.

A.J. Dillon (RB, GBP)

Anytime Aaron Jones is back in the lineup, A.J. Dillon sits in my lineups. In Week 1, Jones and Dillon split snaps evenly (48% to 47%), but Jones still couldn't get above 52% of snaps last week, conceding work to Patrick Taylor and Emanuel Wilson. Dillon's efficiency is just not here this season, ranking 56th in true yards per carry this year,

AJ Dillon, without Aaron Jones, played just 8 more snaps than Patrick Taylor today. Dillon's output this year (PPR points): 5.6, 7.3, 3.3.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 24, 2023

Marvin Jones, Jr., Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds (WRs, DET)

None of these wide receivers have above a 13% target share or a 21% air yards share this season for Detroit. The Lions have one of the narrowest offensive funnels you will find, with all of the work going to their running backs, LaPorta and St. Brown. Put another way, these three receivers have 275 receiving yards on the year combined. That's the same number St. Brown has by himself.

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

I will update this section when we find out more news on Montgomery, but I really do not think he plays in this one and it behooves Detroit to leave him out one more week. Gibbs has seen his snap share and efficiency increase in Weeks 2 and 3 and that leaves no reason to push Montgomery back for this game. Even if he does come back Montgomery would likely be on a snap count for this game.

Kirksey’s Picks

Current Spread: DET -1.5, Current Total: 45.5

These low-spread game are always intriguing, but I often like to side with the home underdog when a game is projected to be this tight. There are so many factors to consider here: Jordan Love's somewhat fluky start, Jared Goff's road performances, the injuries to two key Green Bay players, and the raucous home crowd who clearly know this is the AFC North rivalry of the future (sorry, Chicago!).

In the end, I think there will be enough of a Detroit pass rush to keep Green Bay from putting up a lot of touchdowns. I also believe in the ascension of Sam LaPorta and Jahmry Gibbs as well as a small bounce-back from Amon-Ra St. Brown one more week removed from a foot injury. I'm siding with Detroit in this one, but it's very close.

Picks: DET -1.5, UNDER 45.5

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