RADIO
Aaron Radziucz's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LCS DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 7/25/20. He discusses the LC LoL slate and his top targets for cash games and GPPs.
Hello there, LoL enthusiasts, and welcome back to RotoBaller's coverage of LCS for the 2020 Summer split on FanDuel and DraftKings. The LCS has been a lot of fun to cover this season and we've already seen a number of big upsets and some major improvement by some teams while others have begun to falter.
Another four-game slate for us to break down today. Now that traditional sports are back we can see that the lol contests have shrunk a little bit. There isn't a ton of money to be won but maybe this will lead to a softer field where we can capitalize. A lot of people may scale down their MME volume in order to have enough bankroll to play other sports that are returning but it will be interesting to see how sharp the field is. Without any further ado, let's get into the breakdown.
Today I'll be bringing you my League of Legends DFS picks, advice, and analysis for the four-game LCS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks on Saturday, July 25th, at 4:00 PM. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Governor98. Thanks for reading, now let's get to the strategy and picks!
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League of Legends DFS Basics
Since LCS contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.
- Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
- Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.
Game 1: DIG vs. TSM (-265)
This game starts with what should be a layup, but as all of you know from playing LoL DFS and especially LCS DFS, nothing is a layup. TSM should outclass DIG handily here but they are known for playing down to their competition. I think DIG may actually have a bit of ownership and I don't hate it as a deep GPP spot but I think TSM takes care of business here. Bjergsen is still on a great pace with 75% KP and a KDA of 5.3. I like the 4 man TSM stack but I don't necessarily think Spica is a better play than Treatz, I think Spica has about a 65% chance of playing Sejuani in this game, who is a tanky champion who gets assists but he has a higher ceiling than Treatz so fade at your discretion. TSM averages about 11 kills per game and DIG averages about 10 deaths per game so take from that what you want but I think for the most part I am going to keep it moving from this game.
Top TSM Plays: Bjergsen, Doublelift, BrokenBlade, Treatz, Spica, TSM Team
Game 2: GGS vs. FLY (-165)
FLy is coming off of a rather convincing win on Friday night vs TL. I think this may bump their ownership up a touch but not too much. This game has the highest kill total on the slate at 23.5, 3 kills higher than that of the previous game. GGS is my favorite dog on the slate. As we have seen recently FLY can be had when they play off and GGS has been steadily improving. If GGS has any chance of winning it would certainly have to be through Closer. He would have to absolutely smash for GGS to have a chance in this one. I think FLY is the safe option and probably the eventual winner but I think GGS can make some noise and if they win, the stack would pay off huge.
Top FLY Plays: PowerOfEvil, WildTurtle, Santorin, Solo, IgNar, FLY team
Top GGS Plays: Closer, FBI, Hauntzer, Damonte
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Game 3: IMT vs. C9 (-800)
Alright, here's the chalk. C9 leads the league in kills per game at 15, and IMT leads the league in deaths per game 14. Just about every metric you can look at C9 is leading IMT. This is where you start your cash games and on the same token your GPP lines. The trick is going to be having the correct plays from C9 as not everyone is going to get kills. This may be a hot take of sorts but I think I'd actually try and fade Nisqy. This is because I respect Insanity's game and out of the three lanes I think this one is the closest. Nisqy roams a ton as well so he doesn't really accumulate solo kills in lane. Licorice and Blaber are my favorites here as I think Top has the biggest mismatch as we saw in the last matchup where Allorim went 0-7. Play C9, Play C9, Play C9.
Top C9 plays: Licorice, Blaber, Zven, Nisqy, Vulcan, C9 Team
Game 4: CLG vs. 100T (-145)
I puked a little bit in my mouth when I read this matchup. Lucky for us one of these teams has to win. Both teams have had their ups and downs so far in this split but I like 100T here. At least 100T have shown that they can do things competently, a la beating C9, whereas CLG kind of look lost. They don't really have a consistent top-laner, their jungle looked very promising just a couple of years ago but he has really fallen off of a cliff with his play. 100T grades out as the more proactive team with the higher numbers in stats such as first blood percentage, dragon percentage, and gold difference at 15 minutes. I am all over Ssumday in this one in the top lane, I think he can abuse either one of the top-laners that CLG rolls out against him and snowball the game from his advantage. In my eyes, 100T takes this one convincingly.
Top 100T plays: Ssumday, CodySun, Contractz, Ryoma, Poome, 100T team
Summary
- Favorite stacks: C9, big drop, 100T, FLY, TSM, GGS
- At this point in the season I am going to take some shots, so give me GGS as an upset special here.
- Players are listed in the order that I prefer playing them.
I mentioned this in our RotoBaller Slack chat last night, but if you guys ever have specific questions I feel as though in LCS where the games are best of one, it can be very hard to look at numbers and try to correlate those numbers to successful lineups. There's a lot more variance in LCS then there is in other leagues because of the fact that teams can't mess up or it costs them a whole matchup, there's no move on to next game until playoffs. Teams play games especially slow in the LCS because of this in my opinion and we see it on the scoreboard with the long, drawn-out games with the low kill totals. But getting back to my main point of this rant. If you have questions my twitter DMs are open and feel free to @ me in the slack with anything you may have whether it's strategy or 1v1s or just general analysis. Good Luck Everyone!
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Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!
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