RADIO
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Justin Upton is a 2020 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~ 160
CURRENT ADP: ~202 overall
ANALYSIS: Going into the 2019 season, Justin Upton had reached 600 plate appearances and eight or more steals in eight straight seasons, while hitting 26 or more homers in all but one. Needless to say, just 12 home runs in an injury-plagued campaign was a massive disappointment. A turf toe injury kept Upton out until June, and a knee issue in September ended his year a few weeks early. In between those ailments, he posted a .209/.315/.416 line in 256 plate appearances.
There were a few concerning signs, as Upton's strikeouts continued to creep up, and the quality of contact dropped off. After ranking in the top 10 percent of the league in Hard Hit % (per Baseball Savant) in two of the previous three seasons, he was slightly below league average in the category in 2019. While he still crushed fastballs, Upton struggled against pretty much everything else.
Injuries clearly played a major role in Upton's down year, and all signs point to him being good to go for the start of the 2020 season. Sure, he's a bit more of a health risk than we thought last off-season, and at age 32, his days of double-digit SB may be behind him. But Upton's lengthy track record can't be dismissed, and with the addition of Anthony Rendon, he now has an even better lineup around him.
Upton was going just outside the top 100 in 2019 NFBC drafts, and his price has fallen all the way to 202 in drafts so far this year. He should certainly rebound, and over the course of a full season, a line similar to 2018 (.257 BA, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 8 SB), minus a few steals, doesn't look unrealistic at all. Target Upton in the middle rounds, especially if you're in need of a power boost.
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