Joe Musgrove (SP, PIT) - Week 25 Waiver Wire Pickups

September 16, 2019

Nicklaus Gaut profiles Pittsburgh starting pitcher Joe Musgrove as a waiver wire pickup or add target for Week 25 of the 2019 fantasy baseball season as the perennial breakout candidate has put together a nice run of starts.

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ANALYSIS: It seems right about every time you think you can start trusting Pirates pitcher Joe Musgrove, is right about the time that he gives up about eight runs, as he did in a loss against the Mets on August 4. But Musgrove has been quietly effective in his six starts since, allowing three or fewer runs in five of them. His recent (relative) success has coincided with subtle changes to Musgrove's pitch mix over the past few months, as his four-seam usage has dropped to around 33% over the past two months, after being used around 40% of the time in the previous three months. The main beneficiary of this drop in the fastball has been the curveball, with Musgrove using his hook 15% of the time over his last six starts after only using it 7% of the time in the previous 23 games. On the season, Musgrove's curve carries a 43.1% K-rate, backed by a 17.5% SwStr; as well as a nasty slider and changeup that both have swinging-strike rates over 19%.

Musgrove has a sharp matchup on the schedule in Week 25, with the Pirates welcoming in the Seattle Mariners, who've been particularly crummy against right-handers on the road as of late. Not exactly road warriors, the Mariners have posted a 63 wRC+ and 27.6% K-rate against righties on the road that are both the second-worst in baseball since the All-Star break and come into Pittsburgh having lost 10 of their last 15 games.