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Jaylin Noel is a potential bust and avoid in 2025 fantasy football rookie drafts. Read the fantasy football outlook for the new Texans wide receiver.
DRAFT PICK: 3rd Round (#79 Overall Pick)
TEAM: Houston Texans
ROOKIE DRAFT ANALYSIS: Jaylin Noel, selected by the Houston Texans in the third round (79th overall) of the 2025 NFL Draft, brings an enticing athletic profile, but significant risks that make him a player to avoid in dynasty rookie drafts.
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His 2024 season at Iowa State was impressive, with 80 receptions for 1,194 yards and eight touchdowns, earning him honorable mention All-Big 12 honors, while his NFL Combine performance -- a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, 41.5-inch vertical, and 11-foot 2-inch broad jump -- highlighted elite athleticism.
However, his 5-foot-10, 194-pound frame and 29½-inch arm length limit his catch radius and ability to win contested catches (52% contested catch rate in 2024), critical for a slot receiver facing physical NFL defenses.
His 1.98 YPRR and 33% dominator rating are solid, but not elite. His production was inflated by a high target share (27.3%) due to poor quarterback play from Rocco Becht (61.3% completion rate), suggesting he may struggle to replicate this efficiency with less volume in the pros.
Noel’s landing spot in Houston further dampens his dynasty appeal, as he joins a crowded and talented receiver room that stifles his path to immediate relevance.
With Nico Collins established as the WR1, Christian Kirk (returning from a 2024 collarbone injury) commanding slot targets, and fellow rookie Jayden Higgins (a second-round pick) likely ahead of him, Noel faces stiff competition for touches.
Jayden Higgins in the second round.
Jaylin Noel in the third round.
A pair of @CycloneFB WRs are headed to the @HoustonTexans. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/plgcFcDUQd
— NFL (@NFL) April 26, 2025
The Texans’ 2024 offense spread targets thinly, with no receiver outside Collins exceeding 70 targets, and Tank Dell’s potential return from a 2024 knee injury adds another layer of uncertainty.
Noel’s special-teams experience as a punt and kick returner (Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year in 2024) may keep him active, but his ADP as an early second-round rookie pick overvalues his likely role as a WR3 or WR4 with limited target share.
Dynasty managers should avoid Noel’s high draft cost, as his ceiling is capped by situation and physical limitations, making him a risky investment for long-term production.
- Brandon Murchinson
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