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After a lengthy one-month wait since free agency officially began, one of the unsigned, former NFC South quarterbacks has found a new home. Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston will be staying in the division as he will be heading to the New Orleans Saints on a one-year deal.
Will the turnover-prone passer get a chance to prove he is not always going to be, well, turnover-prone?
We will find out very soon what happens to the 2015 first overall pick in the Big Easy, so let’s evaluate this situation and its fantasy relevance for 2020 and beyond.
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A Long Free Agency Wait
Now that the draft is over, teams will begin to sign any remaining “big-name” free agents. It didn’t take long for Winston to find a home after the draft concluded, less than 24 hours in fact. He did get luckier than former divisional counterpart Cam Newton, who is still awaiting a call from a team.
Jameis Winston got to this point because the Bucs replaced him with a 42-year-old GOAT in Tom Brady, something the Florida State product has bragged about since it took the GOAT to replace his position in Tampa Bay.
It seemed unlikely that Winston would receive a starting role based on his history of blunders and the fact that many teams who needed a starting QB would just take one in the draft. That ended up happening. A starting role for Winston seemed like a long-shot and the only realistic chance he would have is to compete for one would have been on teams like the Patriots, Jaguars, or Redskins.
Instead, the 26-year-old will get a chance to learn from one of the best in Drew Brees, who will still be playing for at least one more year.
Turnover Troubles
From a fantasy perspective, Winston can be surprisingly productive. He finished third among QBs last season with 335 fantasy points and was likely a reason some teams took home a fantasy trophy in their respective leagues. Winston finished 2019 breaking many personal records. He accumulated a career-high 5,109 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 319.3 yards per game, and 30 interceptions, of course.
The 30-for-30 joke hits home here as Winston took the dubious honor of throwing 30 picks in a season, finishing with a 33:30 touchdown to interception season. Nevertheless, the QB’s fantasy value could not be ignored because the numbers he put up on a weekly basis (excluding the picks) were stellar.
If he can improve on his careless mistakes and show out as he did in 2019, he could be an elite fantasy QB in the future.
Picks have always been an issue during his career. As of now, he has thrown 121 career touchdowns compared to 88 picks. His lowest interception total was in 2017 with 11, which seems reasonable compared to last season. Building off those mishaps, Winston had a 20.6 percentage of bad throws per pass attempt rate in 2019. Fumbles haven’t been as terrible of an issue as picks for the QB, though he does have 50 total fumbles in his career, 12 of which came last season.
For fantasy owners who have had Winston in the past, it’s evident he is not a dual-threat QB, as he only has 1,044 total career rushing yards and 10 total rushing touchdowns. His career-high came in 2018 with 281 rushing yards. Throughout his career, Winston has averaged a very, very modest 14.5 rush yards per game, which is simply not enough in fantasy for the ideal dual-threat QB.
Summarizing all that’s been written, Jameis can be maddening to fantasy owners and rather inaccurate and reckless on the field at times, but there’s no denying the boom he can bring to his real team and fantasy owners if he gets streaky. He’s an explosive, yet unpredictable fantasy option.
The biggest question for the former Buccaneer is whether he gets the opportunity to prove himself again in New Orleans. If he does, he could merit some fantasy relevance, but if he gets minimal or sporadic playing time, his fantasy value becomes virtually nonexistent.
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Winston's fantasy value is not going to be as high as previous seasons when he was the Bucs starter and there is a simple reason to it: the Saints’ QB room is packed. Drew Brees has the best fantasy value in this room as he is the starter.
The elusive QB Taysom Hill is sporadically utilized in different roles, but he is still in contention for QB2. NOLA also drafted Mississippi State’s Tommy Stevens to add to QB depth. Therefore, Jameis does not have an established role yet and he should be a candidate to compete with Hill for the QB2 spot. If anything, the only fantasy player Winston directly impacts is Hill, but that’s not saying much considering the BYU product has not been fantasy relevant.
Therefore, it’s hard to assess Jameis’ fantasy value when his role on the team is not clear-cut. He should be considered a fantasy player with minimal value because he cannot provide consistent numbers on a weekly basis with Brees starting.
This means in redraft leagues, Winston should not even merit value for a backup QB role, at least as of this moment. It depends on how much playing time he is slated to get in NOLA, but Taysom Hill’s versatile abilities should give him the upper hand in terms of getting more playing time than Winston.
It’s best to avoid Jameis in fantasy for 2020 unless he gets a very large role on the team, which would in turn be a very shocking outcome when thinking about it now.
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