Is Roschon Johnson or Khalil Herbert the RB2 for the Bears?

Is Roschon Johnson or Khalil Herbert the RB2 for the Bears? Dave Ventresca analyzes which player fantasy gamers should target in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

The Chicago Bears have a new RB1 for the 2024 season. D'Andre Swift signed a three-year, $24 million contract with the Bears at the start of free agency. Swift is coming off a career year with the Philadelphia Eagles, and Chicago felt he would be the perfect back to pair with first-year signal-caller Caleb Williams.

While Swift is locked in as the team’s RB1, things get interesting behind him. Second-year back Roschon Johnson and fourth-year pro Khalil Herbert figure to compete for the backup job.

So, which player will wind up as the Bears’ RB2? Let’s take a few minutes and discuss.

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Who is the Chicago Bears’ RB2?

Johnson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a relatively quiet rookie season as he totaled 561 scrimmage yards on 115 touches. Still, he is a talented back in his own right.

Every Roschon Johnson touch and target from his rookie debut against the Packers

A good chunk of this game was spent in "garbage time" but the 220-pound RB looked comfortable on passing downs and on the GL. Arrow way up. pic.twitter.com/Q9iQKDT1bb

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) September 11, 2023

Herbert has been with the Bears since the 2021 season. While he was only a sixth-round pick, he has displayed playmaking ability every time he has seen the field.

Khalil Herbert goes 52 yards! He's up to 116 yards on the day. @JuiceHerbert

📺: #HOUvsCHI on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/i8TlkqNe5b pic.twitter.com/0VcG1aEFFx

— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022

So, which player will enter the season as Chicago’s RB2? We don’t know for sure at this time, so we’ve got to make an early call. Johnson has some talent, but we will give the nod to Herbert as he has more experience in the league and has been more productive. Nonetheless, whichever player wins the backup job should be targeted in fantasy drafts. Chicago is looking like a fantasy-friendly environment, and you’ll want the back that emerges in the face of any potential Swift injury.

Who Should I Draft in Fantasy Football?

When consulting FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) average draft position (ADP), here is where Herbert and Johnson fall:

Johnson: 176.4
Herbert: 177.13

While there is virtually no difference in ADP, Herbert feels like the preferred play. He graded better than Johnson in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Elusive Rating, PFF’s Rushing Grade, and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). At this point in time, Herbert is simply the better player.

Herbert also finished higher than Swift in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), PFF’s Rushing Grade, Elusive Rating, and MTF/ATT. There’s a non-zero chance he outright replaces Swift if the latter misses time due to injury or is ineffective. There is precedent for such an event. Just last year, the Carolina Panthers benched Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after signing Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal last offseason.

Target Herbert with one of the last picks in your draft or monitor him on waivers to start the year. He has always flashed in limited playing time, and if he is ever given an extended run as a starter, he can be a real asset in any league.

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